This comes from the Butler blog and thought I would share.
Cumulative Pomeroy probabilities of each team advancing past the indicated round:
Horizon Log5 rd1 rd2 rd3 rd4
Valparaiso 100.0% 100.0% 62.4% 32.1%
Cleveland St. 100.0% 100.0% 70.0% 44.1%
Detroit 89.8% 53.3% 18.1% 8.7%
Wisconsin Milwaukee 90.7% 47.8% 18.5% 5.8%
Butler 82.0% 44.6% 17.7% 5.7%
Youngstown St. 65.9% 29.8% 8.0% 2.4%
Wisconsin Green Bay 34.1% 14.7% 3.7% 1.0%
Wright St. 18.0% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Illinois Chicago 9.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 10.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
Quote from: valpotx on February 27, 2012, 10:28:38 AM
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.
Also doesn't take into account matchup issues, if there's an upset early on. it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out though.
Quote from: valpopal on February 27, 2012, 10:37:01 AM
Quote from: valpotx on February 27, 2012, 10:28:38 AM
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right? So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers. Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?
Where did you get that info?
Quote from: historyman on February 27, 2012, 11:28:39 AM
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?
Where did you get that info?
Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game.
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
Quote from: valpopal on February 27, 2012, 10:37:01 AM
Quote from: valpotx on February 27, 2012, 10:28:38 AM
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right? So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers. Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?
What the 5 students that will be there. They say dorms will be open for the tournament, but that's only a certain few (typical residential housing). If you aren't in those dorms you have to go through all the paperwork and crap. Typical student will just go home.
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:39:47 AM
Quote from: historyman on February 27, 2012, 11:28:39 AM
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?
Where did you get that info?
Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game.
http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302 (http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302)
QuoteLeCrone, who is used to criticism coming his way about the Horizon League tournament, also was quick to point out that the league's main responsibility is to prepare teams for success in the postseason. That's why first round Horizon League tournament games are treated like neutral-site contests, even though they are held at locations like the Athletics-Recreation Center.
During last Tuesday's 89-82 loss to Detroit, the Valparaiso student section was relegated to make-shift bleachers near the concession stand, while the Titan faithful were able to invade the bleachers normally reserved for the VU students. Both schools had their bands and cheerleaders present and the Valparaiso public address announcer was not allowed to showcase any positive emotion for the Crusaders unless he did the same for Detroit.
The student sections have to be at the same end as that team's bench.
Quote from: valpo04 on February 27, 2012, 11:49:59 AM
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:39:47 AM
Quote from: historyman on February 27, 2012, 11:28:39 AM
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right?
Where did you get that info?
Maybe I'm losing it, but I could have sworn that the visiting team's student section was placed where VU students normally sat when we hosted a quarterfinal game.
http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302 (http://www.sportsad.ohio.edu/news/index.html?article_id=302)
QuoteLeCrone, who is used to criticism coming his way about the Horizon League tournament, also was quick to point out that the league's main responsibility is to prepare teams for success in the postseason. That's why first round Horizon League tournament games are treated like neutral-site contests, even though they are held at locations like the Athletics-Recreation Center.
During last Tuesday's 89-82 loss to Detroit, the Valparaiso student section was relegated to make-shift bleachers near the concession stand, while the Titan faithful were able to invade the bleachers normally reserved for the VU students. Both schools had their bands and cheerleaders present and the Valparaiso public address announcer was not allowed to showcase any positive emotion for the Crusaders unless he did the same for Detroit.
The student sections have to be at the same end as that team's bench.
Thanks--and sorry, I mistakenly wrote quarterfinal, but I meant first round. Do you know if this requirement is in place for the semis and championship?
Well, I guess it's up to the old fuddy duddies. I hope some of the older Valpo fans can get on their feet and make some noise!!!! :-[
The student sections are on the same side as their respective team. Even with Valpo being the #1 seed, the student section with be in front of the concession stand, and main entrance area, and will most likely be smaller because of the fire code requirements for safe fan entry/exit. The only other thing that could change that is if the bleachers behind the Valpo bench are reserved for students?
Quote from: valporun on February 27, 2012, 01:20:55 PM
The student sections are on the same side as their respective team. Even with Valpo being the #1 seed, the student section with be in front of the concession stand, and main entrance area, and will most likely be smaller because of the fire code requirements for safe fan entry/exit. The only other thing that could change that is if the bleachers behind the Valpo bench are reserved for students?
Could the Valpo team choose to switch benches and sit on the other side of the scorer's table during the tournament?
I believe that is left up to the conference to decide which bench the team sits on?
Quote from: jack on February 27, 2012, 11:04:56 AM
Also doesn't take into account matchup issues, if there's an upset early on. it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out though.
Pomeroy's a pretty mathematical guy. I'm sure it's the full set of possible tournaments. So, I bet that every matchup is included, no matter how unlikely the upset, and weighted according to it's relative probability.
Quote from: valpotx on February 27, 2012, 10:28:38 AM
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
It's Pomeroy. So, he's using his own "pythagorean" rating system. I gather that it's a lot more complicated than the RPI, but I don't know if he has a good description posted.
The blog post with the tourney predictions is at
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/log_5_season_winning_is_everything/ (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/log_5_season_winning_is_everything/)
He knows the home and away sites, and I'm sure it's in his computation.
What's fueling the low Valpo win percentage his his pythagorean rating. Go to http://kenpom.com/ (http://kenpom.com/) for the summary, at least.
76 CSU
128 Butler
133 Milwaukee
135 Detroit
145 Valpo
168 YSU
etc.
He doesn't rate Valpo very highly in the first place, so, even with our advantages (e.g. hosting the semifinals, and the finals if we play in it) we're not his favorite for the tourney.
It is interesting to me that he makes the results of the quarter-finals pretty close to toss-ups. He's probably right there.
One factor I'm less sure of: does Pomeroy include days of rest between games? This might, indeed, be forgotten...
Pomeroy's commentary on the Horizon League tournament is
Quote
Valpo was the extremely unlikely regular-season champ, but they're not the favorite despite earning home games for the duration of the event. Somehow Cleveland State has the best chances, even while enduring a five-game losing streak late in the season. Beloved Butler finished in a three-way tie for third but ended up on the wrong end of the tiebreaker, giving them a much more losable game in the first round against Wright State, inhibiting their shot at getting back to the NCAA tournament.
Having swept, what, three of the teams he ranks ahead of us, I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion. If, indeed, we're the fifth best team, then, OK, the conference results were _very_ surprising.
But, I don't think I buy it. Nor do I buy the "it's hard to beat the same team three times" aphorism that floats around _our_ site sometimes.
Is Valpo vulnerable? Yes.
Do we have a better than 1/3 shot of winning the tournament? I suspect we do.
Is Ken Pomeroy the guy who lives in Merrillville? Or is that another guy with a rating website?
Is there somebody local?
Pomeroy's apparently a meteorologist in SLC.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Pomeroy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Pomeroy)
Quote from: agibson on February 27, 2012, 02:39:54 PM
Having swept, what, three of the teams he ranks ahead of us, I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion. If, indeed, we're the fifth best team, then, OK, the conference results were _very_ surprising.
But, I don't think I buy it. Nor do I buy the "it's hard to beat the same team three times" aphorism that floats around _our_ site sometimes.
Is Valpo vulnerable? Yes.
Do we have a better than 1/3 shot of winning the tournament? I suspect we do.
Jeff Sagarin lives in Bloomington, is that who you are thinking about?
Jerry Palm. Heard him on local radio today and he indicated he was at the Valpo-Butler game. Here's his bio:
http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio (http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio)
Quote from: zvillehaze on February 27, 2012, 09:01:39 PM
Jerry Palm. Heard him on local radio today and he indicated he was at the Valpo-Butler game. Here's his bio:
http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio (http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/palm/bio)
Yes, that is him. Jerry Palm.
Palm lives in Northwest Indiana, which is next to Chicago, governed by Indianapolis, and ignored by both.You gotta love that last comment.
Quote from: historyman on February 27, 2012, 09:05:15 PMPalm lives in Northwest Indiana, which is next to Chicago, governed by Indianapolis, and ignored by both.
+1
Since RLH is no longer around to condemn the double bye I guess its up to me to stick my neck out and condemn it for him. Now according to the Pomeroy Probabilities Valpo and CSU together have a 76.2% chance of grabbing the title. That leaves the field with a whopping 23.8% chance of success. This is I believe a little lower than last year but still consistent with the over 75% probability of 1 of the top 2 teams winning the tournament. The bottom 4 of GB WSU UIC and Loyola have a cumulative 1.2% chance of advancing to the big dance and most of that big number is assigned to GB.
So who should be squealing like a stuck hog this year? If you guessed Detroit you are correct. Without the double bye they have been assigned an 8.7% chance of success which is still almost a full 3% higher than either Butler or UWM. Whatever you do in this league you better be a to do it early because late season success just don't cut it. Too bad that they won 6 out of their last 7 and 9 out of their last 11 because CSU's body of work has earned them the 2 seed even though they are limping in haveing won only 2 of their last 7. So obviously we should treat them as if they were still the healthy confident team of January and not the gimpy beaten into submission team of February. Likewise since Detroit wasn't worth crap in December and early January the wisdom of our double bye system dictates that they still aren't. So how come Pomeroy has CSU with a 5 times greater chance of tournament success than Detroit and yet most of us are sitting here 3 times more worried about Detroit than we are about a healthy CSU?
As much as I love VU, there is a part of me that would like to see the underdog Titans get on a roll, make some shots, get some bounces and maybe create the first 16vs 1 upset. But no, the double bye has already dictated their fate.
So we shouldn't reward the teams that were consistent throughout the entire year and won their way to the top two slots? I like the top teams being rewarded, makes the regular season matter. It would be nice to see maybe the 3 and 4 get a single bye somehow.
Quote from: justducky on February 27, 2012, 09:35:38 PMNow according to the Pomeroy Probabilities Valpo and CSU together have a 76.2% chance of grabbing the title. That leaves the field with a whopping 23.8% chance of success. This is I believe a little lower than last year but still consistent with the over 75% probability of 1 of the top 2 teams winning the tournament.
Last year, the top two apparently had a 67% chance
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=657 (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=657)
Milwaukee, hosting the tournament, was apparently ranked 6th by Pomeroy. But, because of home court and the like, was given a 24% chance to win. Much less than Butler's 43%.
Let's hope Pomeroy's not so accurate this year!
Quote from: Valpo10 on February 27, 2012, 11:46:16 AM
Quote from: crusaderjoe on February 27, 2012, 11:22:35 AM
Quote from: valpopal on February 27, 2012, 10:37:01 AM
Quote from: valpotx on February 27, 2012, 10:28:38 AM
Solely based on RPI/few other factors, doesn't take into account the venue being at the ARC, I believe.
Unfortunately, I don't think the home court will be as much of an advantage as it might be if the students were not on spring break.
IIRC, the student sections are flip-flopped for the tournament games, right? So unless VU puts in substantial bleachers on the concession side, VU's students will be relegated to those little metal bleachers. Anyone know if we are going to have larger portables stands in place for the tournament? Maybe get the capacity up to at least 5,700?
What the 5 students that will be there. They say dorms will be open for the tournament, but that's only a certain few (typical residential housing). If you aren't in those dorms you have to go through all the paperwork and crap. Typical student will just go home.
I was at this game, a junior at the time. I drove to Valpo from Chicago, walked into the arena to sit in the student section, and was confused to be directed to the other side. There were literally less than ten students sitting in the makeshift bleachers, amongst some other random/awkward/silent fans. Valpo lost the game by 7. If I'm not mistaken, the game was never really too close. I was very disappointed in the atmosphere. It was almost like a neutral site game. Kind of sad. However, that was when Valpo was the 6 seed, in the first round. I would hope that students within a two hour radius would at least consider staying/going back. Also, alumni are also going to be have a lot more motivation to return for a semi-final than a first round toss-up game for a subpar team. I personally know a handful of people scattered from Fort Wayne to Milwaukee that are heading back for the matchup who didn't consider going back for the game in '10, and I would be there myself if I wasn't 8 hours away in Columbia, MO. I am optimistic that the environment will still be beneficial to Valpo. On the bright side, at least it is our players who get to sleep in their own beds/don't have to travel.
Of the students I quizzed yesterday, one has travel plans that are already set (Amtrak - not sure how _really_ set those are, but...), one's staying with the pep band (semi-final and final), I think one other _is_ staying (Chicagoland) for the semifinal. No response from three others in the room.
I think each one of us individually must take responsibility to make our section as noisy as possible. How does the student section get noisy? It starts with a group of 3 to 4 students who make a lot of noise. I think of the video of the "I believe that we will win" chant. It all started with 4 or 5 guys who dressed up and just got the whole thing rolling. Even if your section doesn't get excited at first they will be more inclined to join the larger crowd when the momentum turns to Valpo's favor if you were making some noise in your section earlier in the game. I see this every time I go to a Valpo game.
Make some noise at the ARC Saturday!!!!!
tee-shirts???
just kidding
If we had a consistent student following like we did a decade ago, that 'I believe that we will win' chant would have been done. Nowadays, it seems they are just so disinterested. I can't believe I am saying this as a 30 year-old, but it's those darn iPads, PS3, text messaging, etc lol ;)
Quote from: valpotx on February 28, 2012, 10:12:34 AM
If we had a consistent student following like we did a decade ago, that 'I believe that we will win' chant would have been done. Nowadays, it seems they are just so disinterested. I can't believe I am saying this as a 30 year-old, but it's those darn iPads, PS3, text messaging, etc lol ;)
The "tweeting" #ValpoGameday takes away from the enjoyment and chanting of "I believe that we will win" too. I know when I'm sitting here at home on the chats during games, I miss a lot because my brain will be processing how to talk about what someone else is wanting to talk about with stats, or something about the game. These students seem to have a weird version of ADD/ADHD about needing to have something else to do besides just watch/pay attention to the game. They must be on twitter, facebook, or doing something else at the same time. It seems some of them can't "just watch" because they don't know how. Hopefully, the winning attitude will change that in the coming years.
Quote from: bbtds on February 28, 2012, 09:50:52 AM
I think each one of us individually must take responsibility to make our section as noisy as possible. How does the student section get noisy? It starts with a group of 3 to 4 students who make a lot of noise. I think of the video of the "I believe that we will win" chant. It all started with 4 or 5 guys who dressed up and just got the whole thing rolling. Even if your section doesn't get excited at first they will be more inclined to join the larger crowd when the momentum turns to Valpo's favor if you were making some noise in your section earlier in the game. I see this every time I go to a Valpo game.
Make some noise at the ARC Saturday!!!!!
tee-shirts???
just kidding
Suggestions:
1. Face painting (gotta support your team)
2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.
Quote from: Valpo89 on February 28, 2012, 01:22:50 PM2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.
Ewwwww :o
Quote from: covufan on February 28, 2012, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: Valpo89 on February 28, 2012, 01:22:50 PM2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.
Ewwwww :o
We want people to cheer...not leave :cheers:
Quote from: ValpoHoops on February 28, 2012, 03:56:43 PM
Quote from: covufan on February 28, 2012, 01:26:55 PM
Quote from: Valpo89 on February 28, 2012, 01:22:50 PM2. TD and StLu lead sections B-C-D in cheers while wearing only speedos.
Ewwwww :o
We want people to cheer...not leave :cheers:
Let's take up a collection to have Setshot fly in and join that speedo group. Then he could present Bryce with the first "Egg on Your Face" Award. Setshot could bow down in front of Bryce and wash his feet and present the check for completing the track around Brown Field to ML also.
Then we'll send Bryce's shoes to Georgia State coach Ron Hunter so he can send them to Samaritan's Feet and Bryce can coach barefoot.
Maybe the speedo group can all wear powder blue jackets too.
Here's a fun piece from Pomeroy comparing his computer predictions for conference champions, as of the end of December, to the current reality.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/conference_champ_toteboard/ (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/conference_champ_toteboard/)
CSU had a 50% probability, according to Pomeroy's computer, of taking the top tournament seed. Valpo was a big underdog at 4%. The biggest underdog to clinch so far, but Michigan State will likely pass us.
Looks like Pomeroy blew up this weekend.
And by the way,
Quote from: justducky on February 27, 2012, 09:35:38 PM
As much as I love VU, there is a part of me that would like to see the underdog Titans get on a roll, make some shots, get some bounces and maybe create the first 16vs 1 upset. But no, the double bye has already dictated their fate.
So...do you still want this to happen?
If you need fan gear for tomorrow night's game, you can find it here: http://detroitlockerroom.com/ (http://detroitlockerroom.com/)
(Edit: First link didn't work, so this one should help ya instead. ;))