Massey has the initial 2012 Football rankings out, and here is Valpo's schedule with win %:
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=181623 (http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=181623)
I think we'll win more than one this year, just not sure how many. I'd like to see 3-4 wins, and to be in more games in the fourth quarter.
Might come down for the Butler game. Really want to catch a D-I football game, haven't been to one in about 5 years (Northwestern and Wisconsin are the closest teams to Milwaukee, about 80 miles away).
Well, it is a "rivalry" as we play annually for the "Hoosier Helmut". Series goes back to 1927. We're getting better so should make a game of it and I know the kids want this one pretty bad.
Don't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5.
St. Joe's -- about right
YSU -- 21-44
Duquesne 24-35
SDU -- about right
BU -- toss up*
Drake -- about right
Dayton -- about right
Marist -- 31- 28*
Campbell -- about right
Davidson -- 28 - 21
MSU -- 38-34**
we play annually for the "Hoosier Helmut".
Guess we should move that game to the Kohl Center!!!
BOOM BBTDS'd
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on July 10, 2012, 10:11:18 PM
we play annually for the "Hoosier Helmut".
Guess we should move that game to the Kohl Center!!!
BOOM BBTDS'd
I'm not very clear on that one. The waters seem a bit Merkel on that one. I'm not sure I see your Angela. Deutsch you wanna explain it better?
Quote from: bbtds on July 11, 2012, 02:17:33 AMDeutsch you wanna explain it better?
That'd bavaria good idea.
BOOM THREAD HIJACK'D
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 10, 2012, 06:29:35 PMDon't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5. St. Joe's -- about right YSU -- 21-44 Duquesne 24-35 SDU -- about right BU -- toss up* Drake -- about right Dayton -- about right Marist -- 31- 28* Campbell -- about right Davidson -- 28 - 21 MSU -- 38-34**
I hope we start the year the way we finished last year! I think four wins is a possibility, Butler should be a toss up. I saw the Butler game last year and Valpo could have won that game. We were inside the 15 yd. line three times in the first half and came away with no points. Valpo went for it on 4th down just about the whole game. How was the kicking game last year? Was it a problem and have they addressed that?
Quote from: willy on July 12, 2012, 03:24:13 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 10, 2012, 06:29:35 PMDon't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5. St. Joe's -- about right YSU -- 21-44 Duquesne 24-35 SDU -- about right BU -- toss up* Drake -- about right Dayton -- about right Marist -- 31- 28* Campbell -- about right Davidson -- 28 - 21 MSU -- 38-34**
I hope we start the year the way we finished last year! I think four wins is a possibility, Butler should be a toss up. I saw the Butler game last year and Valpo could have won that game. We were inside the 15 yd. line three times in the first half and came away with no points. Valpo went for it on 4th down just about the whole game. How was the kicking game last year? Was it a problem and have they addressed that?
[/b]
To say the place kicking game was a problem would be the understatement of the year. We attempted 3 gield goals and made 1. We also missed 3 of 23 extra point attempts. As for "addressing" the problem, there are 2 kickers on the freshman class list. One is a punter/kicker and the other is just a kicker. Time will tell...
Quote from: vu72 on July 12, 2012, 04:28:17 PM
Quote from: willy on July 12, 2012, 03:24:13 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 10, 2012, 06:29:35 PMDon't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5. St. Joe's -- about right YSU -- 21-44 Duquesne 24-35 SDU -- about right BU -- toss up* Drake -- about right Dayton -- about right Marist -- 31- 28* Campbell -- about right Davidson -- 28 - 21 MSU -- 38-34**
I hope we start the year the way we finished last year! I think four wins is a possibility, Butler should be a toss up. I saw the Butler game last year and Valpo could have won that game. We were inside the 15 yd. line three times in the first half and came away with no points. Valpo went for it on 4th down just about the whole game. How was the kicking game last year? Was it a problem and have they addressed that?
[/b]
To say the place kicking game was a problem would be the understatement of the year. We attempted 3 gield goals and made 1. We also missed 3 of 23 extra point attempts. As for "addressing" the problem, there are 2 kickers on the freshman class list. One is a punter/kicker and the other is just a kicker. Time will tell...
bribe one of the backup keepers from the men's soccer team to be the punter/kicker. my high school did that, with pretty good results. 50-60 yard punts, 40+ yard field goals, lots of touchbacks on kickoffs. might be worth looking into if the freshmen don't work out for whatever reason.
Quote from: vuweathernerd on July 13, 2012, 07:33:11 PM
Quote from: vu72 on July 12, 2012, 04:28:17 PM
Quote from: willy on July 12, 2012, 03:24:13 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 10, 2012, 06:29:35 PMDon't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5. St. Joe's -- about right YSU -- 21-44 Duquesne 24-35 SDU -- about right BU -- toss up* Drake -- about right Dayton -- about right Marist -- 31- 28* Campbell -- about right Davidson -- 28 - 21 MSU -- 38-34**
I hope we start the year the way we finished last year! I think four wins is a possibility, Butler should be a toss up. I saw the Butler game last year and Valpo could have won that game. We were inside the 15 yd. line three times in the first half and came away with no points. Valpo went for it on 4th down just about the whole game. How was the kicking game last year? Was it a problem and have they addressed that?
[/b]
To say the place kicking game was a problem would be the understatement of the year. We attempted 3 gield goals and made 1. We also missed 3 of 23 extra point attempts. As for "addressing" the problem, there are 2 kickers on the freshman class list. One is a punter/kicker and the other is just a kicker. Time will tell...
bribe one of the backup keepers from the men's soccer team to be the punter/kicker. my high school did that, with pretty good results. 50-60 yard punts, 40+ yard field goals, lots of touchbacks on kickoffs. might be worth looking into if the freshmen don't work out for whatever reason.
Keep in mind that anybody who's receiving any athletic scholarship money at all cannot play on the football team. Not sure if that's the case with our backup goalkeepers, but that's one obstacle that could perhaps prevent that from happening.
Quote from: vusupporter on July 13, 2012, 08:53:47 PM
Keep in mind that anybody who's receiving any athletic scholarship money at all cannot play on the football team. Not sure if that's the case with our backup goalkeepers, but that's one obstacle that could perhaps prevent that from happening.
i hadn't thought about this part of it. but that's one of the differences between high school and college, i guess. lol.
Dale Carlson has started a FB Alum group on Linked In. Any interested former FB players on this forum should sign up. That LI group is a good step towards coordinating FB alum resources and support -- something that's a long time in coming.
Here's the link:
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?home=&gid=4529012&trk=anet_ug_hm (http://www.linkedin.com/groups?home=&gid=4529012&trk=anet_ug_hm)
Quote from: vuweathernerd on July 14, 2012, 11:06:03 AM
Quote from: vusupporter on July 13, 2012, 08:53:47 PM
Keep in mind that anybody who's receiving any athletic scholarship money at all cannot play on the football team. Not sure if that's the case with our backup goalkeepers, but that's one obstacle that could perhaps prevent that from happening.
i hadn't thought about this part of it. but that's one of the differences between high school and college, i guess. lol.
Mike Avery mentioned to me that he has something like 8 scholarships to divvy up among an MSO program that is almost 40 deep. So it's easily possible that one of them could do double duty -- and it wouldn't just have to be a goal keeper. The FB team desparately needs a dependable FG kicker and KO specialist. Valpo needs to be able to come away with 3 points as a minimum every time they get inside the 30. However, for this season at least punting is not an issue -- Senior Greg Wood was named to the CFPA Preseason Punter Award Watch List and has been #1 or #2 in the league the past two years.
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 14, 2012, 11:19:34 AM
Quote from: vuweathernerd on July 14, 2012, 11:06:03 AM
Quote from: vusupporter on July 13, 2012, 08:53:47 PM
Keep in mind that anybody who's receiving any athletic scholarship money at all cannot play on the football team. Not sure if that's the case with our backup goalkeepers, but that's one obstacle that could perhaps prevent that from happening.
i hadn't thought about this part of it. but that's one of the differences between high school and college, i guess. lol.
Mike Avery mentioned to me that he has something like 8 scholarships to divvy up among an MSO program that is almost 40 deep. So it's easily possible that one of them could do double duty -- and it wouldn't just have to be a goal keeper. The FB team desparately needs a dependable FG kicker and KO specialist. Valpo needs to be able to come away with 3 points as a minimum every time they get inside the 30. However, for this season at least punting is not an issue -- Senior Greg Wood was named to the CFPA Preseason Punter Award Watch List and has been #1 or #2 in the league the past two years.
you're right that it doesn't necessarily have to be a keeper, but they typically have some of the stronger legs, and they wouldn't really have to alter their kicking motion if they join up as a punter. the biggest difference is that the ball is shaped differently. that and wearing pads would be the biggest changes for them, as far as i know.
Yes, that too. And generally keepers are in the 6' + range height-wise which means greater mass. Interesting though that many, but not all, NFL kickers have been in the 5'8-5'10 range for a long time. But even today's kickers are just naturally bigger cuz everybody seems to be bigger. My son, a 5'8" 155# defensive midfielder on the Colby MSO squad would futz around in college with the college kickers and was routinely accurate from 45. So the leg is there -- add game conditions and it might have been a different story.
But the idea is a solid one regardless. Wondering if Coach Carlson has addressed the subject? Probably has had chats with Mike Avery is my guess.
Why limit himself to Coach Avery? Why not Coach Marovich too?
Didn't you see "Necessary Roughness"? I think the next Kathy Ireland could help attendance too...
Good Point ;)
Positive PR is always welcome. Kathy is a matriculated student? 8)
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on July 14, 2012, 05:14:32 PMI think the next Kathy Ireland could help attendance too...
Kathy Ireland would certainly help my attendance..........how about a poll on this?
Who here wants Valpo to recruit Kathy Ireland as a field goal and kick off specialist (kicker)?
My vote is already on record :dance:
I don't know that, post-Texas State, she has any more eligibility.
Now, about the NEXT Kathy Ireland...
Kate Upton. ::)
How is Upton at kicking some balls through the uprights?
Can she line it up right and place the balls through the middle?
Will she be able to place the balls on a tee and kick them for a long distance to just in front of the goal line?
Quote from: historyman on July 15, 2012, 09:26:19 PMHow is Upton at kicking some balls through the uprights? Can she line it up right and place the balls through the middle?Will she be able to place the balls on a tee and kick them for a long distance to just in front of the goal line?
Stop it--you're making Justin Verlander mighty queasy...
Forgive me for not knowing but how many games would Valpo had won if you had the best kicker in college? I think what happens is people look for a quick solution for fixing problem with teams. This happens at the highs school, college, and pro level. I think the focus should be on other area. How are we looking at the LB'er spot? What about the DL? This is where the game is won.
Good point pudge. The answer last year might be two (Franklin and Davidson). Not being able to put three on the board in the red zone gives opponents a clean sheet, possession and deflates morale on the kicker's team enabling a juiced up opponent to respond with a drive of their own. That happened too many times and eventually caused the staff to go for it on 4th and whatever. Is a kicker the focus of the 2012-13 recruit in class? No, but they have brought in two kids who can kick. Where it appears they have improved is exactly where you point -- D. Games will be closer due to improved quality of the players on the field and experience. When games are closer the kicker becomes more essential. Check Coach Carlson's blog posts and some of his off-season interviews and you'll get a sense that the program's priorities are in line with what you are saying. It's just a question of how far they can actually come.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/independence-4th-down (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/independence-4th-down)
This is a great post--admittedly from stats compiled over several years of FBS teams, but showing you, based on an average kicker--as well as above- or below-average--when you should kick, punt, or go. I find it fascinating and hope you do too.
I've always had the thought that football coaches were way too conservative on 4th down. I think now a days they take just as much guff for not going on 4th down as they do for going on 4th down and giving up the ball. So hopefully we see a turn towards neutral ground.
Only 6 weeks till Valpo football starts. Anyone looking forward to it this year? At least I'm looking forward to it more than the last 10 years' beginnings of the seasons. Before that I didn't really consider it much. The PFL championship was really nice but only a blip on the radar.
Quote from: vu72 on July 12, 2012, 04:28:17 PM
Quote from: willy on July 12, 2012, 03:24:13 PM
Quote from: VULB#62 on July 10, 2012, 06:29:35 PMDon't see some of the Massey predictions. There'll be at least three wins in there. With luck* maybe four. With a lot of luck ** 5. St. Joe's -- about right YSU -- 21-44 Duquesne 24-35 SDU -- about right BU -- toss up* Drake -- about right Dayton -- about right Marist -- 31- 28* Campbell -- about right Davidson -- 28 - 21 MSU -- 38-34**
I hope we start the year the way we finished last year! I think four wins is a possibility, Butler should be a toss up. I saw the Butler game last year and Valpo could have won that game. We were inside the 15 yd. line three times in the first half and came away with no points. Valpo went for it on 4th down just about the whole game. How was the kicking game last year? Was it a problem and have they addressed that?
[/b]
To say the place kicking game was a problem would be the understatement of the year. We attempted 3 gield goals and made 1. We also missed 3 of 23 extra point attempts. As for "addressing" the problem, there are 2 kickers on the freshman class list. One is a punter/kicker and the other is just a kicker. Time will tell...
The kicking game may have been a problem, and punting may have been a portion of our field position problems, but we had more problems on each side of the line of scrimage.
I recall attending a game at Butler, probably '95, but maybe earlier. It was a high scoring game with Valpo having a shot as time was winding down. Many in our group were commenting that they should just send in the kicker, kick the field goal, and go home winners. During a timeout many of us were discussing this when a lady turned around and said "because he can't kick". She was related to one of the coaches and was more familiar with the team, so we believed her and laughed. It turns out that we moved the ball forward one more time before kicking, and won 44-42. I just looked it up.
I doubt punting was our problem other than the fact that we had to punt so many times! Greg Wood is one of the best in the country. The reality is that "lockdown" defense at this level is just unheard of. There will always be a player who isn't the best but we will also always have a player or two who could contribute or even start at a Big Ten type school. As a result, if we win it generally will be in a high scoring game. Keeping the defense on the sidelines with long successful drives will also help as when the defense is on the field they aren't so tired as has been the case for several years.
I will be new to coming to Valpo games. What can I expect with attendances? Will it be pack there? Do I have to get there early (hours) before the game. Is there tailgating before game and where? From looking at the comments by coach Carson comments, he seems excited about this recruiting class and looking forward toward the season. I was looking at the fb team record last year and was a little down because I hate going to games where the team is expected to lose more then 4 games. Am I wrong is what I see and believe,
Quote from: NuPudge on July 19, 2012, 05:05:57 PM
I will be new to coming to Valpo games. What can I expect with attendances? Will it be pack there? Do I have to get there early (hours) before the game. Is there tailgating before game and where? From looking at the comments by coach Carson comments, he seems excited about this recruiting class and looking forward toward the season. I was looking at the fb team record last year and was a little down because I hate going to games where the team is expected to lose more then 4 games. Am I wrong is what I see and believe,
If you haven't noticed so far under Coach Carlson (please remember the "L") we are 1-21. Of course through his positive attitude and what seems to be improvement we, except maybe one of us, all hope the team keeps improving and getting better. Better in most of our views is 4 to 5 wins but that still is pretty optomistic. I would be happy with 3 wins but hope and pray for more.
Anything less than a 6-5 record will be unacceptable. Three strikes and you're out. GO VALPO!
Quote from: setshot on July 19, 2012, 06:34:47 PM
Anything less than a 6-5 record will be unacceptable. Three strikes and you're out. GO VALPO!
Remember when I said "except for one of us".................it's pretty obvious.............DePauw's D-III No. 4 final ranking sure made headlines.
Now i guess the next question i have is, are we headed in the correct directions as a football team? It seems as if the other Valpo sport programs are doing well. I am not saying that you should only count the wins but fans should see some improvement with the type of kids thats coming to Valpo..
I guess the next 2 questions i have is whether the fb program is hurting because boardline kids cant get into the school or if its because we dont offer full rides.
Because I am new, explain how Valpo is a D1 school but not provide kids with full rides? Will this change you think? Do we offer full rides in the basketball, track, baseball etc? Sorry for asking these questions but I want to be informed.
Let me take your questions in reverse order.
In order to maintain D-I status a school must have all it's sports in D-I. That includes FB. However, in its great wisdom (and I do agree with it), the NCAA realizes that FB is expen$ive and therefore allows two options: D-I FBS or D-I FCS (the old D-IAA). So a school like VU that wants to play D-I basketball (that's the real driver here) can opt for the big time Football Bowl Series (85 required scholarships and a bunch of other rules like minimum stadium size) or a similarly scholarshipped FCS (65 scholarships with lesser restrictions). The FBS are eligible for bowl games and big payouts; all FCS teams are eligible for NCAA playoff championships and must more modest payouts that come from the NCAA. But even within FCS there is an option: Scholarship or no scholarship. Regardless of choice, if a team chooses to play FCS they are eligible for the NCAA playoffs. Due to the lesser level of competition (see VU vs, YSU , or San Diego vs. another FCS school scores), few non-scholarship teams are invited. But that will change as the Pioneer will become an AQ (automatic qualifier) in 2013. There are 4 non-scholarsip FCS conferences: Pioneer, Patriot, Ivy and NEC. I'm pretty certain about the Northeast Conference (NEC), but I also know that the Patriot is moving slowly to scholarshipped. The Ivy is all financial aid-based and as a league has opted out of post season play, though they are competitive enough that they could go pretty deep into the playoffs if added.
VU has D-1 scholarships for all D-I sports (most being non-revenue and the numbers and $$$ are not onerous -- e.g., men's soccer has 8 to spread among a program involving nearly 40 players) and has opted for the FCS non-scholarship FB option.
Within it's chosen path VU can schedule similar schools with similar philosophies, i.e., the Pioneer FB League. The issues are not the scholarships, but (1) attracting and retaining talented kids at that level and (2) attracting and retaining good coaches. VU at one point early last decade had, I believe, 2 PFL championship seasons. Since then the program has fallen on hard times and did not maintain the momentum those good years should have created.
I'm pretty sure Dale Carlson has some influence in helping borderline players gain admission. But "borderline" is a relative term. Our borderline is a lot higher than, say, most state universities. I would suggest that all posters in this forum are very proud of VU's academic status and do not want that to be compromised. Players who are attracted to VU come and play because they graduate with a lot going for them in the career world PLUS they get to play at the FCS level and travel nationally.
IMO we have attracted a coach and staff who are well organized, have created a true program, have changed the team culture, have recruited better athletes within VU's standards, and have put the foundation in place to have a competitive team going forward. But the hole they are climbing out of is deep and this may be the year where a positive change will be noticed. It won't be dramatic, but it will be noticeable.
NuPudge, isn't it better to be getting on the bandwagon on the ground floor instead of hopping on after the winning has happened for a while. Bet you didn't know bandwagons went up and down between floors. :crazy: Metaphors were meant for mixing.
Getting off to a good start will be crucial. In a losing program, if you lose most of your first 3 or 4 games, you get less effort and morale later. It's just human nature.
Quote from: crusadermoe on July 20, 2012, 10:25:25 AM
Getting off to a good start will be crucial. In a losing program, if you lose most of your first 3 or 4 games, you get less effort and morale later. It's just human nature.
The St Joe opening night game will be extremely important. Valpo will not come close to beating Youngstown State. That is a given. Duquesne would be a nice upset but will probably not happen and winning at San Diego will be difficult but not impossible. Beating St. Joe and upsetting either Duquesne or San Diego would get the season off to a very respectable 2-2.
Interesting that USD plays at Harvard the week before they play Valpo in San Diego. Now there is a team that bounces from coast to coast. Open in San Luis Obispo, CA then San Diego, then Cambridge, MA, then San Diego, then Des Moines, IA, then San Diego, then Jacksonville, FL, then San Diego, then Poughkeepsie, NY, then San Diego, then Davidson, NC.
bbtds, do you really believe that Valpo can beat both St. Joe and either Duquesne or San Diego?
I'm just not seeing it. My guess would be 0-4 but I could see 1-3 is possible. I pray for 2-2.
First four games: Gotta beat St. Joe. Gotta show up at YSU, but the thrashing will still occur. Duquesne can be an upset win -- it's a home game and if we're not too banged up against YSU, the kids could pull this one off. Road trip to SDU is probably a long trip for a loss. Historyman and I are in accord: it'll be 1-3 with a chance for 2-2.
The word is: PFL coaches have picked Valpo to finish last in the PFL. So what else is new. Beat St. Joe! :'(
Nice incentive for our guys! Go kick some butt!
http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2012-13/11894/pfl-releases-2012-preseason-poll/ (http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2012-13/11894/pfl-releases-2012-preseason-poll/)
Quote from: vu72 on July 30, 2012, 03:08:56 PM
Nice incentive for our guys! Go kick some butt!
http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2012-13/11894/pfl-releases-2012-preseason-poll/ (http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/news/2012-13/11894/pfl-releases-2012-preseason-poll/)
Hey, someone picked us to finish 9th!!! Progress!
Rest easy. Next year we won't be any less than 6th. Why? Two new teams and expansion to 12 teams and two divisions. We'll be picked 6th. in one of them. Book it! :twocents:
I thought when I opened this site the heading read " An independent fan site for SUPPORTERS of Valparaiso University athletics".
Quote from: willy on July 31, 2012, 09:08:11 AM
I thought when I opened this site the heading read " An independent fan site for SUPPORTERS of Valparaiso University athletics".
Well said Willy. Our friend setshot is a bit of a schizophrenic as he will, on occasion, say something good about Valpo or her athletic programs, but then slips back, or misses a dose, and we get the more normal setshot in all his "glory"! :crazy:
I think that setshot (or jj) has been a long time supporter of VU Athletics. He also has some strong opinions. His negativity can wear on you, but deep down I think he supports all VU sports.
Yeah, setshot can really get rough. ButI agree that he cares deep down.
In football 2012, it just seems unrealistic to expect to beat YSU, Duquesne, or San Diego. Who knows about St. Joe-since D-2 schools vary all over the map year to year. That would be a bonus unforeseen by me.
Realistically, I can see us beating Butler on Homecoming and winning 1 to 3 other PFL games. Season should mark 2 to 4 wins. Progress, but .500 or more should be expected of new coach by 2013. Maybe avoid the crazy YSU games?...
Hi all,
I was at the school today and seen the freshmen class as they were checking in and Dam they are the real deal. Coach Carlson has gone out, and recruited football players in this 2012 class. Remember when I say this class will be remembered. I've seen freshmen that are bigger, stronger, fitter then the current football team. If I was a current player. I would be looking over my shoulders for the recruits. I am not saying we have a recruiting like LSU football it would put this class up against any class in our conference for this season. Football will be back.
I think I am heading back again, to checkout the workout later in the week, if I can to see the team conditioning and speed. If they allow this.
Quote from: NuPudge on August 05, 2012, 03:45:56 AM
I was at the school today and seen the freshmen class as they were checking in and Dam they are the real deal. Coach Carlson has gone out, and recruited football players in this 2012 class. Remember when I say this class will be remembered. I've seen freshmen that are bigger, stronger, fitter then the current football team. If I was a current player. I would be looking over my shoulders for the recruits. I am not saying we have a recruiting like LSU football it would put this class up against any class in our conference for this season. Football will be back.
I think I am heading back again, to checkout the workout later in the week, if I can to see the team conditioning and speed. If they allow this.
Pudge, I assume you meant that you "
haven't seen freshman.... "
I believe all practices are open to the public, so by all means go. But shoot for later in the week as the NCAA requires "aclimatization" which means that they start off in shorts and shirts for practice #1 and over the next few practices get to full pads. Seeing a S&S doesn't tell you much. Wait till they are in pads and there is some hitting going on. Check with the FB office for times. Here's a contact :
Patti.Nemeth@valpo.edu
Patti is the administrative assistant to coach Carlson.
Look fwd to any reports.
I was also at the school yesterday and agree with Nupudge. I'm new to Valpo and have not seen the current players but I can tell you this group of freshmen look strong and fit. I would not be surprised if some of these guys get some playing time right away.
I spoke to a couple kids after today morning workout and they talked about a freshman DB there named Cotton. I am not sure who he is, but they said he was the strongest and fastest freshmen there.. I was looking for information about him and didn't see anything. Is he a transfer? I saw a few more freshmen and thought they were upper classmen.. I ran into 3 freshmen qb who stood about 6'3 with huge forearm. One had an offer from Purdue he said.
I saw a freshman who stood about 6'1 & 220, built like a LB and seems to a nice kid.
Pudge, I assume you meant that you "haven't seen freshman.... "
Yes, you are correct.. Sorry typing on my phone..
I must say, I would. E surprised if the freshmen don't get playing time...
Quote from: NuPudge on August 05, 2012, 01:24:41 PM
I spoke to a couple kids after today morning workout and they talked about a freshman DB there named Cotton. I am not sure who he is, but they said he was the strongest and fastest freshmen there.. I was looking for information about him and didn't see anything. Is he a transfer? I saw a few more freshmen and thought they were upper classmen.. I ran into 3 freshmen qb who stood about 6'3 with huge forearm. One had an offer from Purdue he said.
I saw a freshman who stood about 6'1 & 220, built like a LB and seems to a nice kid.
That must be Cody Cotton, DB 5'10" 190lbs , from Walther Lutheran High in Maywood, IL
Here is what Coach Carlson said about him in the news relase about the recruiting class:
CODY COTTON (DB):
"Cody is versatile player who played well at corner as a junior and at safety as a senior. He is an excellent tackler
and is physical. We're not sure which spot we will start him out at in camp yet."
He other big kid was named Zachary Bihary. My word, what a big dude to have running the ball..
"Zach is an excellent blocker and receiver who will fit nicely into a fullback/H-Back/tight end role for us. We will be able to use him in the backfield, on the wing, and on the line of scrimmage. I like his versatility."
SAM AKAINYAH (DL)
"Sam is an ideal nose tackle in the 3-4 defense. He is powerful, has a good first strike, and is hard to knock of the ball. He has been involved in turning his high school program at North Shore Country Day into a state playoff team."
RYAN GORSKI (QB):
"Ryan is top quarterback prospect who makes plays passing and running the ball. He played in more of a pro-style offense in high school. He has the arm to make all the throws in our offense and is very accurate"
TRAE HOESKE (QB):
"Trae has the potential to be an excellent quarterback for us. He can make the throws we need and he has the ability to keep plays alive with his feet."
Both these guys are over 6'3 and look great..
Any word on how the O Line and D Line are shaping up. We graduated 3 of 5 OL starters plus a key freshman sub (Van Arnum) did not return. The DL graduated all 3 starters, a key sub and had an expected starter (Johnson) leave.
The offensive added 5 freshman and a JC, all 260 pounds or bigger. The DL added 6 but 4 are undersized. One of the freshman is 335 pounds and if he can play that would be a plus.
Quote from: IndyValpo on August 17, 2012, 07:59:53 AM
Any word on how the O Line and D Line are shaping up. We graduated 3 of 5 OL starters plus a key freshman sub (Van Arnum) did not return. The DL graduated all 3 starters, a key sub and had an expected starter (Johnson) leave.
The offensive added 5 freshman and a JC, all 260 pounds or bigger. The DL added 6 but 4 are undersized. One of the freshman is 335 pounds and if he can play that would be a plus.
I'm afraid that question won't be answered until the St. Joe's game. Practicing against themselves and even tomorrow's scrimmage won't reveal a thing. Coach Carlson's communications don't get to that kind of detail either. He hasn't highlighted line play yet. All of his comments are general, team references. But your summary of returning and new players is a concern.
Here's a link to an August 16th Post-Trib article on the team. Some names are mentioned and there is some info on the OL along with one reference to DL.
http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/14540146-556/valparaiso-hope-depth-on-offense-can-help-end-conference-skid.html (http://posttrib.suntimes.com/sports/14540146-556/valparaiso-hope-depth-on-offense-can-help-end-conference-skid.html)
they can't be any worse then last years lines, right?
Quote from: sectionee on August 17, 2012, 08:41:07 AMthey can't be any worse then last years lines, right?
Actually, yes they could be worse.
Quote from: VULB#62 on August 17, 2012, 08:16:19 AMHere's a link to an August 16th Post-Trib article on the team. Some names are mentioned and there is some info on the OL along with one reference to DL.
Um...Coach?
Quote
Hoffman did that, completing nearly 60 percent of his passes, 13 for touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was also picked off 14 times. ... "Eric did some good things, but the big thing we've got to do is get the touchdown-interception ratio reversed," Carlson says.
I'm pretty sure that if he reverses the ratio, he'll throw 14 TD to 13 INT, and I'm even more sure that that will NOT change a {deleted} thing.
NWI Times had an article by Paul Oren on Jabril Baker, a 6', 205 lb. RB, who's been out the last couple of years. Could be a help.
http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/baker-excited-for-long-awaited-vu-football-debut/article_d87ee07c-5fef-57be-92e1-97b8eb37256d.html (http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/baker-excited-for-long-awaited-vu-football-debut/article_d87ee07c-5fef-57be-92e1-97b8eb37256d.html)
Quote from: IndyValpo on August 17, 2012, 07:59:53 AM
Any word on how the O Line and D Line are shaping up. We graduated 3 of 5 OL starters plus a key freshman sub (Van Arnum) did not return. The DL graduated all 3 starters, a key sub and had an expected starter (Johnson) leave.
The offensive added 5 freshman and a JC, all 260 pounds or bigger. The DL added 6 but 4 are undersized. One of the freshman is 335 pounds and if he can play that would be a plus.
Has anyone seen a two-deep for the St Joe game?
The O and D lines will be crucial this year, if we want to improve that W column.
Any word on why Van Arnum and Johnson chose not to return?
Nope, but Jalen Johnson was the kind of kid you could build a defense around. Reminded me a lot of Adam Rundh but taller and I think a bit faster. i wondered about that myself.
Any news on Trevor Hammer? He is listed as one of the 2012 commits but I don't see him on the updated roster. From his high school highlight tape, he looked pretty impressive and seemed like he could have contributed right away.
Rivals.com had him committed to VU along with two other kids who did make the 2012 roster. Rivals mentioned that Tulsa University (D-I - FBS) was looking at him. But I checked the TU roster and his name wasn't there. Apparently he was a no-show this fall along with Nick Basile another DB. Either that or both got homesick and left before the roster was finalized. My guess with Hammer's stats ( 4.5 40, 31" vertical leap and 260# in the BP) he was waiting for a better, possibly FCS scholarship or D-II scholarship, offer to open up when he put his deposit down for Valpo.
Missing player update: Jalen Johnson left for Miami of Ohio to try to walk on. Will have to sit out the year. Not sure he realizes the difference between FCS non-scholarship, FCS scholarship, and FBS. UMass is making the move from the FCS Colonial League, where they have been quite successful, to MAC and they expect to get clobbered in the first couple of years. Confirmed that Hammer never reported.
Quote from: VULB#62 on August 29, 2012, 01:30:06 PMApparently he was a no-show this fall along with Nick Basile another DB.
Basile is on the roster. The 2nd freshman that did not show up was RB Brandon Hall out of Michigan.
Quote from: VULB#62 on August 29, 2012, 02:53:14 PM
Missing player update: Jalen Johnson left for Miami of Ohio to try to walk on. Will have to sit out the year. Not sure he realizes the difference between FCS non-scholarship, FCS scholarship, and FBS. UMass is making the move from the FCS Colonial League, where they have been quite successful, to MAC and they expect to get clobbered in the first couple of years. Confirmed that Hammer never reported.
Hammer may have been holding out for something from I-AA, but he might also be going the JUCO route. Might have been cheaper as well. Just guessing.
Hammer: Coach C said it was a personal situation.
Quote from: IndyValpo on August 29, 2012, 03:13:54 PMBasile is on the roster
And today he and transfer Derrick Caldwell have been removed from the roster.
What happened to Kelvin Smarwt? I thought he was an up and coming WR and returner?
Was looking for him too but appears he didn't return to VU or opted out of FB . He was a Florida kid -- maybe the winter got to him?
Quote from: IndyValpo on August 30, 2012, 09:19:55 AM
Quote from: IndyValpo on August 29, 2012, 03:13:54 PMBasile is on the roster
And today he and transfer Derrick Caldwell have been removed from the roster.
Even with those players that transferred or did not show up, and those that have left the program (no longer on roster) I still count 96 players on the roster, with only 30 true Freshman and 11 Seniors (or 5th year Seniors). On the Off/Def two deep, only 8 are seniors, out of 44. We'll also be losing our P and our backup PR. I'm looking forward to watching this team progress this season.
Well, it's halfway through year 3, and I have to wonder, when is the progress going to come? Is the progress going to come? I think at this point the questions can start being asked...is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train? The current record under this new staff is 1-26. Without looking I venture to say that is the worst 2 1/2 years in Valpo football history (I could be wrong...I pray I am not).
Here are just some thoughts to ponder...
In year 1 Valpo was defeated by an average of 47-9
In year 2 Valpo was defeated by an average of 45-16
In year 3 Valpo has been defeated by an average of 50-16 :o
More telling is that the average halftime score this year is 34-8. The games are over before the second half kickoff even happens. They're getting blown out by other non scholarship programs, and blown out quickly. Getting drilled by YSU is one thing, getting drilled by your rival on homecoming is another. I understand getting better takes time, but at some point don't you need to see progress? :-[
The movie title for this debacle could be "Dude, where's my kicker?" ??? ;D
Quote from: milanmiracle on October 06, 2012, 11:07:28 PMWell, it's halfway through year 3, and I have to wonder, when is the progress going to come? Is the progress going to come? I think at this point the questions can start being asked...is there a light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a train? The current record under this new staff is 1-26. Without looking I venture to say that is the worst 2 1/2 years in Valpo football history (I could be wrong...I pray I am not).
Good questions. I think many are asking the same or similar questions.
I seem to recall Coach Carlson discussing the 'system' they are trying to coach. Maybe that system won't work with the personnel at hand. Maybe it is time to junk the system, and try other things.
It seems the caliber of recruit has been upgraded, but is that true? Maybe Coach Adams and Coach Horne were recruiting players that were under the radar, so to speak. Maybe the previous coaches were better at adapting the O and D to the players at hand.
I'm certainly less optimistic than in August. Coach Carlson has a record of starting programs. Maybe his 'system' is something that won't work at the Div I-AA non-scholarship level.
As you've shown, the stats are not getting better this year. With the exception of Time of Possession, and our 3-down percentage, most stats are very close to the average for last year.
With the last three games last season, I was looking for more this season. Maybe the team needs time to gel a little more. Hopefully, we'll see some progress in the coming weeks.
Last year the two-deep had 42 players (one on Off and Def were backups at two positions). Of these, only 8 were seniors; of those 7 were starters. We did lose 3 OL starters and 3 DL starters. Tough to overcome that teamwork and experience on the line. This year we have 44 players on the two-deep (one player on Off is backup for two positions, and SS has 3-deep). Of these only 7 are seniors, with 4 starters.
With the young players on this team and some progression on the field in the last 6 PFL games of this season, I think that Carlson deserves at least one more year. The defense needs to step up and keep the rest of our PFL opponents below 40, preferably lower than 35. We also need to get the turnover margin into our favor.
I have also told others that Valpo should give Carlson one more year. After that without any progress he is gone. He may be gone at the end of this year already. I'm sure ml is looking at coaching candidates by now. Just to have an idea of who to call when the time comes. Personally, if I had any kind of success at another level whether asst or head coach I wouldn't listen. It's just the sad truth.
Quote from: covufan on October 09, 2012, 03:55:50 PM
Good questions. I think many are asking the same or similar questions.
I seem to recall Coach Carlson discussing the 'system' they are trying to coach. Maybe that system won't work with the personnel at hand. Maybe it is time to junk the system, and try other things.
This weekend I was watching the Navy-Air Force game. The service academies are always scraping to get the talent they need to compete and usually the talent level is below most of their opponents. Army has had a tougher row to hoe because grads go off to Afghanistan instead of up in the air or on a ship, but both Navy and Air Force go nose to nose with decent competition. They compete because they know their talent limitations and have designed offensive systems that let them be competitive. Neither play the current fad offenses, but they still get yards and scores. So until such a time as Valpo is consistently winning and therefore able to attract and retain really good players, it needs to find a system that enables them to win with the players they have. Being able to control the ball would sure help a D that is always under pressure.
So are we suggesting Valpo should run the option? :)
I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!
My question of the day...Do you really believe that Coach Carlson gave those kids the best opportunity to compete THAT DAY each and every game day? Not three years from now, or not next season, but on game day right now?
My answer...I don't. Go ask Lou Holtz or even Steve Spurrier about changing your styles to fit your players. They've done it, and will continue to do it. Maybe Dale should give it a try as both have well over .500 records against much better competition.
I will never forget that Jacksonville game where he hung those kids out to dry. I watched the whole debacle and Carlson did absolutely nothing to slow the bleeding. Throw three times stopping the clock, punt, and watch them score.
Quote from: milanmiracle on October 10, 2012, 09:52:41 AM
I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!
That was my point -- whatever it takes to be competitive with the talent available. I used Navy-Air Force as examples of adjusting systems to optimize the level of talent you have. On a level playing field where talent is even, I'm sure Valpo's current systems would be competitive. But the field is not level and adjustments need to be made.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 10, 2012, 11:39:52 AM
Quote from: milanmiracle on October 10, 2012, 09:52:41 AM
I am going to suggest that Valpo runs whatever offense or defense gives those kids the best chance to compete on a weekly basis. I don't care what "the system" is, just give your kids a chance to be in football games! If that means running the wing, the option, the no huddle, the spread, the I formation...just let them compete. Do you really think those kids enjoy being 1-26 and getting blown out of most games. Of course not!
That was my point -- whatever it takes to be competitive with the talent available. I used Navy-Air Force as examples of adjusting systems to optimize the level of talent you have. On a level playing field where talent is even, I'm sure Valpo's current systems would be competitive. But the field is not level and adjustments need to be made.
I was agreeing with you :thumbsup:
Yeah, I know ??? I was actually underscoring your point with mine cuz TX was wondering about the option. Should have used TX's quote. :crazy:
Bring in the veer!
Princeton Single Wing!
Delaware Wing T! ND Box!
Texas Wishbone!
Pro Set! >:( >:( :o >:( >:( USC I!
Just as long as it uses the kids' talents appropriately.
oh yeah the USC I !!! Get some well corn fed offensive linemen and run student body left and right. Have Charles White and Stanley Havili run the I. And bring back Anthony Davis from 1974 as shown in the link.
USC Football Classics -Notre Dame 1974 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iceQZSOGH-8#)
I think it would be pretty neat for us to go to a gadget-type offense like that, utilizing less talented players that work well within a system. Our spread offense does not appear to be working towards our kid's strengths. I believe that when we had Murrell Shields my first 2-3 years at Valpo, we ran the option occasionally. Let's find another Murrell :). While we are at it, some Franco Francese's, Eric Kinesie's, and Jeff Horton's lol
Quote from: usc4valpo on October 10, 2012, 07:37:52 PM
Bring in the veer!
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 10, 2012, 08:30:38 PM
Princeton Single Wing!
Delaware Wing T! ND Box!
Texas Wishbone!
Pro Set! >:( >:( :o >:( >:( USC I!
Just as long as it uses the kids' talents appropriately.
We could also dust off the Valpo playbook from Koch's last season: The Lonesome Polecat!
http://www.slideshare.net/tomneuman/lonesome-polecat-formation-2 (http://www.slideshare.net/tomneuman/lonesome-polecat-formation-2)
www.gregorydoublewing.com/Lonesome_Polecat.ppt (http://www.gregorydoublewing.com/Lonesome_Polecat.ppt)
We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Quote from: covufan on October 11, 2012, 12:14:30 PM
We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Wow. I read every post on that link :( It's
deja vu all over again. You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 11, 2012, 01:17:50 PM
Quote from: covufan on October 11, 2012, 12:14:30 PM
We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Wow. I read every post on that link :( It's deja vu all over again. You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.
jj and setshot are one in the same :o
"jj and setshot are one in the same"
************************
Oh no! Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy who gets me into trouble all the time? ;)
Seriously, I found you guys in 2011 and to see the same comments we are making now showing up almost word-4-word in 2009 helps me understand where a lot of the veteran posters are coming from.
I am throwing away Drake. It's a done deal, and we might as well accept that it will be another slaughter. But from that point on let's look at the remainder of the schedule.
We've got the following games remaining and I have added my "Competitive Expectation in Per Centage" (CEPC):
GAME CEPC WHY?
@ Dayton (4-2) 05.00% Only winning team left; competed well with Duquesne (NEC), but got killed by Illinois State (ranked)
Marist (2-3) 20.63% Beat Davidson & Bryant (they're winless in the NEC), only lost to Bucknell by 2 and Columbia by 1
@ Campbell (1-4) 45.02% NAIA team only win, lost to a D-II; "held" Butler to a 14-35 loss; lost to Drake 7-35 but now #3 ODU 14-70
Davidson (0-5) 49.07% Respectable in most games; Av margin of loss to FCS scholarship schools - 14.7 pts; haven't given up more than 38 points
@ Morehead (1-4) 40.01% Only win: Southern VA (NAIA team); But lost to Drake only 25-28 and JU 17-38 and EKU by 7
Based on this highly scientific assessment (because I took the imaginary %age to 2 decimal points) I believe it is reasonable to predict that VU might/could/maybe pull out two (2 ) wins out of three close games to close out the season.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 11, 2012, 04:14:21 PM
Oh no! Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy? ;)
Well, do ya, Sport?
Quote from: covufan on October 11, 2012, 12:14:30 PMWe mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board: http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Are you guys telling me Koch actually used this in a game? He was a very nice guy, but he never knew how to call a play.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 11, 2012, 01:17:50 PM
Quote from: covufan on October 11, 2012, 12:14:30 PM
We mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board:
http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Wow. I read every post on that link :( It's deja vu all over again. You could have cut and pasted it into 2012 -- the only difference is that jj is replaced by setshot.
The scary thing is, I am not even bothered by the scores running across the ESPN ticker anymore...Youngstown State 49 Valpo 0 - Half
They're 1-26 since Coach Carlson took over, and truthfully I don't see anything changing or getting better in the forseeable future. I still comment and watch games, but I've become resigned to the fact that they're going to get blown out most of the time and a winning season is a far fetched dream.
While they won't catch Prairie View A&M and their 80 game losing streak, if not for Campbell, Valpo would be awful close to the 44 game losing streak by Columbia. Here's an article from ESPN about the worst college football teams of all time. I think VU is getting close to being included on that list if they're not careful.
http://espn.go.com/page2/s/list/colfootball/teams/worst.html (http://espn.go.com/page2/s/list/colfootball/teams/worst.html)
Let's hope it doesn't happen, but nothing I have seen to this point tells me it won't. :-[
So here is my question: if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years. What do you do?
Quote from: usc4valpo on October 11, 2012, 06:51:13 PM
Quote from: covufan on October 11, 2012, 12:14:30 PMWe mentioned the lonesome polecat in '09 on the other board: http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647 (http://valpofans.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=valposports&action=print&thread=3647)
Are you guys telling me Koch actually used this in a game? He was a very nice guy, but he never knew how to call a play.
Yes. I went to the Dayton game (55-6) - it was a cold and miserable day. Dayton was a Division III team (no scholarship) at the time. Valpo used that offense more than a few times that year. The Dayton coach, in an newspaper article before the game, mentioned the fact that Valpo was using the "lonesome polecat". He was quoted as saying something like: "and the sad thing is we have to spend a few days this week on how to defend this trick offense"
Quote from: usc4valpo on October 12, 2012, 12:41:37 PM
So here is my question: if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years. What do you do?
If I'm the AD, you have to assess the overall program, the Head Coach, the coaching staff, and the improvements made during this season, and compared to past seasons. Was there improvement between year 1 and year 2? Yes. Will there be improvement between years 2 and 3??? The team really needs to improve on both sides of the ball to show improvement over last season. Tom Horne also had 3 bad seasons to start his career. If Carlson can get the season PF/PA delta to around -220, that might show improvement. The team will also need to be in two games with 7-8 minutes to play, not down by 30+. The AD also needs to look at the team chemistry - is Carlson bringing in quality student-athletes? Are the players quality students in the classroom and around campus. Is recruiting improved over 2009?
Even is they go 0-11, I think we should give him more time. This is based on his record, and the schools previous experience with Horne.
Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com
Valparaiso Yearly Totals
Year Coach Win Loss Tie Pct. PF PA Delta Ave/game
1981 Bill Koch 1 9 0 0.1 48 265 -217 -21.70
1988 Bill Koch 0 9 1 0.05 76 452 -376 -37.60
1989 Tom Horne 0 10 0 0 100 431 -331 -33.10
1990 Tom Horne 1 9 0 0.1 97 370 -273 -27.30
1991 Tom Horne 1 8 1 0.15 104 273 -169 -16.90
2002 Tom Horne 1 10 0 0.09091 268 498 -230 -20.91
2009 Stacy Adams 1 10 0 0.09091 121 344 -223 -20.27
2010 Dale Carlson 0 11 0 0 100 514 -414 -37.64
2011 Dale Carlson 1 10 0 0.09091 177 500 -323 -29.36
|
Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game. We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change. ::)
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 11, 2012, 04:14:21 PM
"jj and setshot are one in the same"
************************
Oh no! Is it kinda like I have this evil twin named Skippy who gets me into trouble all the time? ;)
Seriously, I found you guys in 2011 and to see the same comments we are making now showing up almost word-4-word in 2009 helps me understand where a lot of the veteran posters are coming from.
I am throwing away Drake. It's a done deal, and we might as well accept that it will be another slaughter. But from that point on let's look at the remainder of the schedule.
We've got the following games remaining and I have added my "Competitive Expectation in Per Centage" (CEPC):
GAME CEPC WHY?
@ Dayton (4-2) 05.00% Only winning team left; competed well with Duquesne (NEC), but got killed by Illinois State (ranked)
Marist (2-3) 20.63% Beat Davidson & Bryant (they're winless in the NEC), only lost to Bucknell by 2 and Columbia by 1
@ Campbell (1-4) 45.02% NAIA team only win, lost to a D-II; "held" Butler to a 14-35 loss; lost to Drake 7-35 but now #3 ODU 14-70
Davidson (0-5) 49.07% Respectable in most games; Av margin of loss to FCS scholarship schools - 14.7 pts; haven't given up more than 38 points
@ Morehead (1-4) 40.01% Only win: Southern VA (NAIA team); But lost to Drake only 25-28 and JU 17-38 and EKU by 7
Based on this highly scientific assessment (because I took the imaginary %age to 2 decimal points) I believe it is reasonable to predict that VU might/could/maybe pull out two (2 ) wins out of three close games to close out the season.
Massey and Real Time RPI both have some predictions for future games. The highest chance of winning from Massey is 42% against Davidson. RTRPI has us beating Davidson by 1 and losing to Marist by 3.
http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_2093_Men.html?Valparaiso (http://realtimerpi.com/football/ncaaf_2093_Men.html?Valparaiso)
http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=181623 (http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=181623)
Win at home!
Coach Horne needs to be seriously defended here. I have never met the man.
However, Valpo played in a scholarship Division 2 conference in those 3 Horne years. 91-0 loss to Grand Valley was near the norm. It is absolutely unfair to compare Carlson and Horne's 3 year records.
The best thing that happened to VU football was the Pioneer League formation because it leveled that playing field on scholarships. Valpo's only obstacle at that point was a very boring campus culture, but Horne did ok. Horne won two conference titles in that conference even though we also had some bad years. I don't recall many horrible teams though in the period of 1997 to 2005.
Again, they WON two conference titles and competed well.
Quote from: covufan on October 12, 2012, 01:15:38 PM
Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com
Valparaiso Yearly Totals
Year Coach Win Loss Tie Pct. PF PA Delta Ave/game
1981 Bill Koch 1 9 0 0.1 48 265 -217 -21.70
1988 Bill Koch 0 9 1 0.05 76 452 -376 -37.60
1989 Tom Horne 0 10 0 0 100 431 -331 -33.10
1990 Tom Horne 1 9 0 0.1 97 370 -273 -27.30
1991 Tom Horne 1 8 1 0.15 104 273 -169 -16.90
2002 Tom Horne 1 10 0 0.09091 268 498 -230 -20.91
2009 Stacy Adams 1 10 0 0.09091 121 344 -223 -20.27
2010 Dale Carlson 0 11 0 0 100 514 -414 -37.64
2011 Dale Carlson 1 10 0 0.09091 177 500 -323 -29.36
|
Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game. We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change. ::)
Here's a slightly different look at some of the same data based on the VU Athletic Website and the VU Football record book. What's been bugging me since 2008 has been the loss margin. Turns out it was generally lower before 2010.
Quote from: usc4valpo on October 12, 2012, 12:41:37 PM
So here is my question: if Valpo goes 0-10 this year, then Coach Carlson is 1-32 after 3 years. What do you do?
I fully expect Valpo to go 0-10 and finish 1-32 under Coach Carlson's tenure to this point. However, I think you have to keep him for 4 years. Let this process run it's course and see what happens after next season. I think there should be an evaluation at the end of this year, just to make sure expectations are clear. Then let the season play out and go from there.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 12, 2012, 08:46:26 PM
Quote from: covufan on October 12, 2012, 01:15:38 PM
Here is some info on some of our worst seasons, from cfbdatawarehouse.com
Valparaiso Yearly Totals
Year Coach Win Loss Tie Pct. PF PA Delta Ave/game
1981 Bill Koch 1 9 0 0.1 48 265 -217 -21.70
1988 Bill Koch 0 9 1 0.05 76 452 -376 -37.60
1989 Tom Horne 0 10 0 0 100 431 -331 -33.10
1990 Tom Horne 1 9 0 0.1 97 370 -273 -27.30
1991 Tom Horne 1 8 1 0.15 104 273 -169 -16.90
2002 Tom Horne 1 10 0 0.09091 268 498 -230 -20.91
2009 Stacy Adams 1 10 0 0.09091 121 344 -223 -20.27
2010 Dale Carlson 0 11 0 0 100 514 -414 -37.64
2011 Dale Carlson 1 10 0 0.09091 177 500 -323 -29.36
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Right now, for 2012 we're average a -33 differential per game. We have some opponents that we should be competitive with coming up, so this should change. ::)
Here's a slightly different look at some of the same data based on the VU Athletic Website and the VU Football record book. What's been bugging me since 2008 has been the loss margin. Turns out it was generally lower before 2010.
The loss margin would be smaller if he used the talent he has vs. the talent he wants to have. I don't really think he cares if the lose by 100 or 1, as long as they are working towards improving and running "the system".
Quote from: milanmiracle on October 12, 2012, 10:30:40 PM
The loss margin would be smaller if he used the talent he has vs. the talent he wants to have. I don't really think he cares if the lose by 100 or 1, as long as they are working towards improving and running "the system".
For more information, attached is another cut at the data focusing on these past three years [click on it to enlarge]:
> Basically the Offense has improved by a total of 80 points over 3 years (100, 160, 180 [projected]) or + 2.42 points per game over 33 games [again, projected].
> The Defense has allowed 514, 417 and 543 [projected] points respectively in three seasons for PA averages of 46.7 in year one, down to 37.9 in year two and a projected 49.3 in year three, for a differential of +2.6 points per game over three seasons.
Net, the increase in PA has cancelled out the gain in PF over three years. So.......... On the field, there is little to show in terms of improvement. In other words, the stats reflect eyeball observation.
We've been assured that the talent coming in is getting better and better each year. Judging from size, HS credentials, build and observed athleticism, that is probably true. There has been a dedicated off-season program that is more structured and goal oriented. There have been improvements in uniforms, shoes, some facilities (we've already beaten the stadium to death, so I'll leave that out), etc. The staff is touching on more things than just football (life skills, etc.). So the structural basics are being addressed to a good degree. IMO a true program is now in place.
Of the remaining 6 games, Drake and Dayton could be blow-outs so the ratios will probably remain in tact to that point. The remaining four may change those ratios more favorably as all those opponents have losing records (although Marist is the most formidable among them and may have a winning record by the time they arrive at Brown Field if they can get by Butler this week [maybe] and Drake [probably not] next week).
Of course, wins would be nice, but at this point, they are not the sole determinant of program improvement. First must come competitiveness, closer scores, fewer points allowed. I'd rather suffer through a string of tight losses, frustrating as that might be, than have the futility and confidence drain resulting from blow-out after blow-out. Tighten up the on-field performance, then we can talk about wins.
Quote from: crusadermoe on October 12, 2012, 04:20:08 PM
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Yes. After his first three years, his teams were mostly competitive including the 2 league titles.
What were the circumstances around Horne's depart ure? If I recall, it was during the summer, so not much chance to look for a replacement, going straight to Adams since he was on staff.
I can't remember the exact reasons that Horne stepped down, but it happen about mid-July, so all that could be done was to hire someone from his "system", and Stacy Adams was the most logical choice, even if his actual coaching didn't prove that.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 13, 2012, 09:22:51 AMTighten up the on-field performance, then we can talk about wins.
This Drake game responded to that wish. There are 5 more games. If all five (or even 4/5) could be as close and as competitive as this, I, for one, will concede progress has been made.
Ditto for me. As I said on the Drake game post, they beat San Diego 38-10.
But I also agree with you that sustained performance will tell the tale. In 2010 we nearly beat Drake at homecoming. Then we got destroyed by everyone else afterward, even the weak teams.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2012
Butler 17, Marist 14 *
Drake 35, Valparaiso 21 *
Jacksonville 34, Davidson 24 *
Dayton 41, Morehead State 27 *
San Diego 44, Campbell 0 *
After this week, and based on the kids' effort Saturday, of the remaining opponents (in bold), my thought is that next week is pivotal. Will they continue to play tough, competitive football or, feeling like they accomplished something, fall back on old ways (like 2010)?
The remaining schedule gives us two more tough opponents (Dayton and Marist) in a row and then three teams without a PFL win among them. A game similar to Drake against Dayton (they led Morehead only 24-13 at the half) and a close loss to Marist sets us up to go even up against Campbell, which has scored only 65 points so far and given up 215. Davidson is a home game and we could have beaten them at their place last year. It might be possible to go into Morehead looking for a third win in a row to end the season.
Sat, 10/20 at Dayton * Dayton, Ohio 12:00 p.m.
Sat, 10/27 Marist * Brown Field 1:00 p.m.
Sat, 11/3 at Campbell * Buies Creek, N.C. 12:00 p.m.
Sat, 11/10 Davidson * Brown Field 1:00 p.m.
Sat, 11/17 at Morehead State * Morehead, Ky. 12:00 p.m.
But the ground game has got to continue to improve and be relied upon by the coaching staff (Where did Lehr come from? He was listed as a tight end on the roster). Saturday Valpo demonstrated that you don't have to throw 50 times, get intercepted two or three times or get sacked 5 times to have an offense. Part of the story of the "low" score was that Valpo took time off the clock and gave Lehman good targets because the Drake defense had to honor the run. The same worked for Quinn Schafer on the final TD drive.
Paul Oren, who was the substitute color man, mentioned that Schafer (6-4-225) was actually regarded more highly than Hoffman coming in until he blew out a knee. There might be some QB competition this week and it's possible that Carlson may not be as reluctant as he has been in the past to pull a QB if he isn't doing well.
I have to agree with VULB#62. I do believe it is time to change who plays a factor in the lineup. We relied on Hoffman's arm too much, too often, and it would result in 3-and-outs in less than a minute too often. The running game should be the system, with an occasional pass play. Also, I'm thinking of looking at the stats for Hoffman and Ali-El, and see if they held us back too often. I mean is Hoffman's accuracy or inability to make quick decisions a factor in the passing game, and is Ali-El more of a blocking back/fullback type, instead of the main running attack? Valpo might be able to do better with guys that can get the ball moving forward, rather than just hitting certain spots, and "taking a dive".
VU is now ranked #245 in the Sagarin ratings!!!
Texas lost to Oklahoma this weekend 21-63. Ohio State beats Indiana (Indiana?!?!?) 52-49. :o
I'm beginning to finally get it. The paradigm has changed. Close scores are meaningless. Blow-outs are meaningless. It's just: Is it a W or a L? .............And does anybody play freakin defense anymore? :crazy:
This is not our father's football. :(
Did you see what Texas Tech did last weekend?
There was talk on the ESPNU College Football podcast, and on a couple other radio shows/tv shows I heard about how some analysts and followers can't understand why college football doesn't value defense as much as they should. Maybe if the BCS took score differential into account, teams would start to value defense a bit more, making many games more exciting all-around, not just from an offensive perspective. I mean that WVU/Baylor game two weekends ago got annoying to watch because of all the scoring. Football should never see scores that high, especially with all the video work, but it seems recruiting is all about looking good to ESPN and the other recruiting websites out there, instead of getting players that fit the system, and leave everything out on the field all the time.