#97 VALPARAISO MEN'S BASKETBALL 2012-13 PREVIEW (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/4560)
And just for fun, here is LAST YEAR'S RANKING. (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/691)
Edit --
#108 GREEN BAY (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/4486)
#130 CLEVELAND STATE (http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/4344)
Nice! I think Kenney comes off te bench still. He seems to do really well being the 6th man/energy guy. I also don't think we will see much of Kurth barring blowout/foul trouble/injury. Pressing defenses could be a problem when Buggs is out until Dority is eligible.
We are getting close to the stArt of a very exciting season!
Quote from: sectionee on August 06, 2012, 06:36:36 PMNice! I think Kenney comes off te bench still. He seems to do really well being the 6th man/energy guy. I also don't think we will see much of Kurth barring blowout/foul trouble/injury. Pressing defenses could be a problem when Buggs is out until Dority is eligible. We are getting close to the stArt of a very exciting season!
With 2.5 apg last year, do you think Kenney could be a backup PG to begin the season if Kurth is not in the form of his freshman season? With his rebounding and shot blocking (led the team) as well as assists, Kenney could legitimately play anywhere from the 1 to 4 spot.
Kenney makes a lot of good passes, but at times last year he would get turnover happy. Although any of the guys are better options then what Kurth displayed last year. Maybe he will be healthy and back to his old self, but I'm not holding my breath.
I'm sorry, #97 is ridiculous--especially when we're better than last year when RPI was 95. But like you said, all the better to show them up again with. Of course, any site that says "reigns" when they mean "reins" is suspect anyway.
Quote from: sectionee on August 10, 2012, 09:35:26 PMKenney makes a lot of good passes, but at times last year he would get turnover happy. Although any of the guys are better options then what Kurth displayed last year. Maybe he will be healthy and back to his old self, but I'm not holding my breath.
You are right. Kenney's assist-turnover ratio was 1.21, which is not great. If Kurth is not healthy, someone will have to play backup PG until Dority is eligible. Someone to run the point for 8-10 minutes per night. Looking at the roster Kurth is the most logical option, considering he does have a lot of experience playing the point, and no one else on the roster does besides Buggs.
Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on August 10, 2012, 09:41:31 PM
I'm sorry, #97 is ridiculous--especially when we're better than last year when RPI was 95. But like you said, all the better to show them up again with. Of course, any site that says "reigns" when they mean "reins" is suspect anyway.
I agree with this ... #97 is just silly. He mentions the addition of guys like Capobianco, Rossi and Dority, but seems to totally underestimate the impact BCS transfers can have in the Horizon League.
Valpo certainly has the non-conference schedule in place to prove guys like this wrong ... they just have to go out and do it.
Eddie - A long time back I criticized you for always being sarcastic and insincere. Either I pegged you wrong or you have changed over time. Either way I have come to appreciate your opinions as an outsider, whether I agree or not.
Quote from: EddieCabot on August 15, 2012, 04:21:01 PMQuote from: LaPorteAveApostle on August 10, 2012, 09:41:31 PM[size=78%] I'm sorry, #97 is ridiculous--especially when we're better than last year when RPI was 95. But like you said, all the better to show them up again with. Of course, any site that says "reigns" when they mean "reins" is suspect anyway. [/size]
[size=78%] I agree with this ... #97 is just silly. He mentions the addition of guys like Capobianco, Rossi and Dority, but seems to totally underestimate the impact BCS transfers can have in the Horizon League. Valpo certainly has the non-conference schedule in place to prove guys like this wrong ... they just have to go out and do it. [/size]
My only question mark with Dority is how long it will take him to get into the flow of the game after missing the first 5-6 weeks of the season. I think that is something that plagued Ben Boggs last year, and we never saw him at his true best.
While Rossi did play at a BCS School, he played a total of 16 minutes there. Considering he has essentially not played competitive basketball since high school, he may have some game rust to shake off as well.
I definitely think Capo will be the most reliable and consistent of the 3 BCS transfers
For a change I think I'm the most pessimistic person here about our team. These transfers have hardly played the last 2 years, same for Kurth. I am coming around on Capo, maybe DM can fill us in on the other guys a bit. We know why we have in Ryan, KVW, Matt Buggs...but Boggs didn't do much last season and Will either got us double digits or was hardly a factor. I'm ready to see these guys in action and hopefully erase any doubts.
Does Jordan Coleman stand any chance in making the rotation, especially since this team is stacked full of guards?
Quote from: sectionee on August 15, 2012, 05:43:49 PM
For a change I think I'm the most pessimistic person here about our team. These transfers have hardly played the last 2 years, same for Kurth. I am coming around on Capo, maybe DM can fill us in on the other guys a bit. We know why we have in Ryan, KVW, Matt Buggs...but Boggs didn't do much last season and Will either got us double digits or was hardly a factor. I'm ready to see these guys in action and hopefully erase any doubts.
Rossi was an ESPN 4-star 92-Scout Grade recruit out of high school. The following ESPN description is of him as a high school junior: "Rossi can flat out shoot it. He is definitely one of the top 10 shooters in the class of 2010 that can stretch a defense. The kid makes tough shots coming off screens and is deadly when he has his feet set ready to catch and shoot." http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/95006/alex-rossi (http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/95006/alex-rossi)
If we had a freshman of that stature direct from high school, I think we would expect significant contributions. My understanding is that Rossi is fully healthy and brings the added advantage of having matured and strengthened his body the past two years. I may be optimistic, but I expect good things from him this year.
Quote from: vubballfan10 on August 15, 2012, 05:46:00 PM
Does Jordan Coleman stand any chance in making the rotation, especially since this team is stacked full of guards?
I would think so. Especially if he has any ball handling skills. We will need those to back up Erik the first couple of months.
Quote from: sectionee on August 15, 2012, 07:56:40 PMQuote from: vubballfan10 on August 15, 2012, 05:46:00 PM[size=78%] Does Jordan Coleman stand any chance in making the rotation, especially since this team is stacked full of guards? [/size]
[size=78%] I would think so. Especially if he has any ball handling skills. We will need those to back up Erik the first couple of months. [/size]
http://www.njcaa.org/colleges_college_player.cfm?sid=4&collegeid=1571&category=Roster&slid=2&teamid=122502&athleteid=353796 (http://www.njcaa.org/colleges_college_player.cfm?sid=4&collegeid=1571&category=Roster&slid=2&teamid=122502&athleteid=353796)
Here are Coleman's JUCO stats, he did average 3.1 assists, so we shouldn't rule out a few backup PG minutes before Dority becomes eligible. I will say this: Tommy Kurth will have to earn backup PG minutes before mid-December, they will not just be given to him because he has experience.
Quote from: valpopal on August 15, 2012, 05:56:24 PM
Quote from: sectionee on August 15, 2012, 05:43:49 PM
For a change I think I'm the most pessimistic person here about our team. These transfers have hardly played the last 2 years, same for Kurth. I am coming around on Capo, maybe DM can fill us in on the other guys a bit. We know why we have in Ryan, KVW, Matt Buggs...but Boggs didn't do much last season and Will either got us double digits or was hardly a factor. I'm ready to see these guys in action and hopefully erase any doubts.
Rossi was an ESPN 4-star 92-Scout Grade recruit out of high school. The following ESPN description is of him as a high school junior: "Rossi can flat out shoot it. He is definitely one of the top 10 shooters in the class of 2010 that can stretch a defense. The kid makes tough shots coming off screens and is deadly when he has his feet set ready to catch and shoot." http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/95006/alex-rossi (http://espn.go.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/95006/alex-rossi)
If we had a freshman of that stature direct from high school, I think we would expect significant contributions. My understanding is that Rossi is fully healthy and brings the added advantage of having matured and strengthened his body the past two years. I may be optimistic, but I expect good things from him this year.
Precisely. If we had signed Rossi, Dority, Boggs, Chadwick or even Coleman out of high school we would be excited ala Butler over their freshman kid. As for Coleman's contributions, do you really think Bryce would have given a scholarship to a kid would MIGHT be good enough to help NOW?? I don't think so.
So, sectionee, are you going to do some interviews again this season? I think we would really enjoy hearing directly from these new guys!!
Probably not. Never got much response doing that stuff. Maybe the itch will come back when the season gets closer, but we'll plan on letting the fellas at Beyond the Arc handle this stuff.
Quote from: vubballfan10 on August 15, 2012, 08:04:52 PM
Quote from: sectionee on August 15, 2012, 07:56:40 PMQuote from: vubballfan10 on August 15, 2012, 05:46:00 PM[size=78%] Does Jordan Coleman stand any chance in making the rotation, especially since this team is stacked full of guards? [/size]
[size=78%] I would think so. Especially if he has any ball handling skills. We will need those to back up Erik the first couple of months. [/size]
http://www.njcaa.org/colleges_college_player.cfm?sid=4&collegeid=1571&category=Roster&slid=2&teamid=122502&athleteid=353796 (http://www.njcaa.org/colleges_college_player.cfm?sid=4&collegeid=1571&category=Roster&slid=2&teamid=122502&athleteid=353796)
Here are Coleman's JUCO stats, he did average 3.1 assists, so we shouldn't rule out a few backup PG minutes before Dority becomes eligible. I will say this: Tommy Kurth will have to earn backup PG minutes before mid-December, they will not just be given to him because he has experience.
If he does, they're in trouble, and not just because of his injuries in the past.
I didn't want to start a new thread, so thought I'd just tack it on to this thread. These guys have Valpo rated a little higher at #72, but I still sense they are underestimating what Capobianco, Rossi and Dority will add to this team.
http://www.roundballchat.com/2012/10/72-valparaiso-college-basketball-countdown/ (http://www.roundballchat.com/2012/10/72-valparaiso-college-basketball-countdown/)
I have a hard time taking anyone seriously whose top 100 automatically includes
Quoteall the 75 programs in the six major conferences, as well as 25 mid majors
That's...like "We gon' rank ALL the white kidz plus'n 25 of the top my-NOR-iteez! We opin-MINDED!!!"
Further proof on how asinine this idea is:
According to RealTimeRPI, last year:
1) HALF (!) the ACC was outside the top 100
2) A QUARTER of the B1G was outside the top 100
3) 40% of the Big 12 was outside the top 100
4) Almost a THIRD of the Big East was outside the top 100
5) HALF the Pac 12 was outside the top 100
6) A THIRD of the ESS EEE SEE was outside the top 100
That's 28 teams, or 37.8% of "power conference schools" that don't merit necessary inclusion in any "top 100".
I want my click back.
ON A RELATED "FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH"
Here's a college BB blog from the Boston Globe, called Sully's Court on his prediction for the 2013 Big Dance. Note that he divides the world as we know it into "Them" and the "One-Bid Leagues." Note that the OVC and Horizon are in the latter category as is the Summit. Also note that he picks Detroit to repeat as the HL tourney winner and the NCAA bid-winner >:(. Remember, this is from way east and this guy knows very little of what goes on in the heartland unless it involves one of "Them." My point, I guess, is to point out that the HL gets very little credit outside the central mid-west. My conclusion is that the HL must pursue it's goal of getting itself out of the "One-Bid League" category and become one of "Them." Here's the link: http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/extras/colleges_blog/2012/10/sullys_court_pr_20.html (http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/extras/colleges_blog/2012/10/sullys_court_pr_20.html)
Here's his prediction (I highlighted some interesting things within):
Time for Sully's Court to predict the field for this season's NCAA Tournament.
ACC (5): N.C. State, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia, Maryland
Atlantic 10 (5): Saint Louis, Temple, UMass, Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Joseph's.
Big East (7): Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, St. John's.
Big 10 (7): Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern.
Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
CAA (2): Drexel, Delaware
Conference USA (2): Memphis, Marshall
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Northern Iowa
Mountain West (3): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Pac 12 (3): UCLA, Arizona, Stanford
SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Georgia
West Coast (3): BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
One-bid leagues
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: High Point
Big West: Cal Irvine
Horizon: Detroit
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Loyola of Maryland
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Savannah State
Northeast: LIU
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Oral Roberts
SWAC: Prairie View
Summit: Oakland
Sun Belt: North Texas
WAC: Denver
Kinda makes a case for adding Murray State and Oakland.
Quote from: VULB#62 on October 21, 2012, 10:25:29 AM
ON A RELATED "FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH"
Here's a college BB blog from the Boston Globe, called Sully's Court on his prediction for the 2013 Big Dance. Note that he divides the world as we know it into "Them" and the "One-Bid Leagues." Note that the OVC and Horizon are in the latter category as is the Summit. Also note that he picks Detroit to repeat as the HL tourney winner and the NCAA bid-winner >:(. Remember, this is from way east and this guy knows very little of what goes on in the heartland unless it involves one of "Them." My point, I guess, is to point out that the HL gets very little credit outside the central mid-west.
I believe Jason Aldean explains it best:
Jason Aldean - Fly Over States (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1GZzucDMlQ#ws)
Athlonsports has a nice HL preview. Haven't hit my link posting quota since rejoining the board.
Quote from: HC on October 22, 2012, 05:19:52 PM
Athlonsports has a nice HL preview. Haven't hit my link posting quota since rejoining the board.
http://www.athlonsports.com/college-basketball/2012-13-college-basketball-countdown-horizon-league-preview (http://www.athlonsports.com/college-basketball/2012-13-college-basketball-countdown-horizon-league-preview)
Thanks, wh
I'm really tired of all the pre-season stuff. Let's prove it on the court. Saturday can't come quick enough. ;D
Quote from: vu72 on October 22, 2012, 06:17:12 PM
I'm really tired of all the pre-season stuff. Let's prove it on the court. Saturday can't come quick enough. ;D
I'm already into game prep. Earlier today I picked up a nice Richardson, custom-fit VU cap and and a long sleeve gray VU T. I'm headed out the door for a 2-mile walk. I'll be ready by Saturday! :)
Quote from: wh on October 22, 2012, 06:36:19 PM
Quote from: vu72 on October 22, 2012, 06:17:12 PM
I'm really tired of all the pre-season stuff. Let's prove it on the court. Saturday can't come quick enough. ;D
I'm already into game prep. Earlier today I picked up a nice Richardson, custom-fit VU cap and and a long sleeve gray VU T. I'm headed out the door for a 2-mile walk. I'll be ready by Saturday! :)
Looking Good!!!! ;)
Where did you purchase your Richardson, custom-fit VU cap from, wh?
Quote from: valporun on October 23, 2012, 12:18:37 AM
Where did you purchase your Richardson, custom-fit VU cap from, wh?
MAGIC Sports on Lincolnway (in the same little strip mall with 7-eleven). They have a nice selection of quality VU sports wear, along with a ton of stuff for every high school in the county (except maybe Portage).
Wow! MAGIC Sports is still there? I remember them opening up, and I thought it was more cheap-ish crap sports gear that other stores couldn't sell.
Another Horizon League preview ... this from CBSsports.com. Not surprisingly, Valpo picked as the favorite.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/20654819/college-basketball-previews-horizon-loses-butler-but-still-has-sizzle (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/20654819/college-basketball-previews-horizon-loses-butler-but-still-has-sizzle)
Quote from: valporun on October 23, 2012, 12:31:05 PMWow! MAGIC Sports is still there? I remember them opening up, and I thought it was more cheap-ish crap sports gear that other stores couldn't sell.
(http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/30sznyv.gif)
saders, I.........am.........so.........so.........so.........GLAD..........you're........back............mumble, mumble, mumble, mumble, mumble
For what it's worth, Valpo has recieved some votes in the preseason AP poll. Let's hope our name will stay on this page throughout the season!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)
Good to see, been awhile. Always good to be above ORU, but too bad we are under Butler right now (why??) :)
Am I missing something or did I not see UDM in the top 144?
By this account, HL will go VU, GB, CSU ... and who knows what else.
FOund it odd that UDM wasn't in the top 144.
Quote from: govalpogo on October 26, 2012, 12:54:23 PM
For what it's worth, Valpo has recieved some votes in the preseason AP poll. Let's hope our name will stay on this page throughout the season!
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)
Good to see! I hope so as well, but I think even if we win all of our November games, we'll somehow fall out of favor with the voters. At least we have a chance to be on this page for the rest of the season!
The Pomeroy Pre-Season ratings are now out, and it is difficult to take them seriously. Valpo is listed at #130 with three Horizon League teams ahead: Cleveland State at 108, Green Bay at 121, and Detroit at 128. (Former HL team Butler is listed much higher than all of them at 64.)
http://kenpom.com/ (http://kenpom.com/)
Valpopal,
Those rankings don't even make sense... I agree "difficult to take seriously." :crazy:
He has South Dakota State as #49, which lends credibility to the statements that this initial ranking means nothing :)
The rankings are silly. Wisconsin at 5 really stands out. They are a marginal top 25 team who just lost their PG for the season.
Would love to see the "formula" that came up with those rankings. How on earth could we be third in the HL and how in the heck can Butler be #64?
If anyone cares to read through Pomeroy's crazy explanation of how he ranked the D-1 basketball world, you will see how he completely whiffed on Valpo's ranking. I think the man needs a long rest.
Say hello to your Big Ten overlords
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, October 30, 2012
I've rolled the site over to 2013, fresh with my stab at pre-season ratings and reasonably accurate schedules. (If you see something wrong with your team's information, kindly drop me a line.)
These rankings might not match what you've seen in any other venue. The uniqueness is due to two general reasons. First, my computer doesn't see everything humans see, and for the most part, humans have an advantage here. I generally think humans do a good job of assimilating data this time of year, with perhaps the exception of overvaluing a long tournament run fueled by close wins or a favorable draw. Even then, it's just a hunch on my part that people overvalue that. I could be the one undervaluing postseason performance.
The other reason is that my computer doesn't know what humans are thinking. This is mostly an advantage to the computer. I think the AP preseason poll is useful, but one criticism I have of it is that voters' ballots are a bit too similar. Of this year's ballots, in what should be a more difficult year to predict, just two of 65 voters had Indiana outside the top 3, and those two had the Hoosiers at number four.
Indiana may well be the proper pick as the best team in the land, but I think if you locked people in a room in late March and made each individual figure it out on his or her own, it wouldn't have been nearly as obvious that a team with a suspect defense last season should be the best team in the land this season, and at least a few people would have struggled to put them in the top five.
For those that haven't read the previous editions of College Basketball Prospectus, I'm going to take this post to describe the inputs to the model, and then I'll discuss teams tomorrow. The logic goes like this: If you could have one thing to predict a team's offense, what would it be? It turns out last season's offensive efficiency would be that thing. It does a good job of predicting offense the following season. After that, the previous season's offensive efficiency is the next best predictor, and after that, last season's defensive efficiency helps a bit. (Flip the script for the defensive predictors.) Those three things are the foundation of the system.
The model takes those basic stats from the past and adjusts them for returning players. It's got a bit of intelligence built in to determine which players' minutes were most valuable last season. On the offensive end, minutes are weighted by the following formula...
(Player ORtg/Team Raw OE)^2 x (Player %Poss/20)^2
As an example, for Weber State's Damian Lillard, this works out to
(124.2/111.5)^2 x (32.2/20)^2 = 3.23
In other words, for last season, Lillard's minutes were over three times as important as the average Weber State player on the offensive end, and Lillard played a lot of minutes. Weber returns about half of its minutes from last season, which is a pretty decent figure. But its offense is forecast to suffer quite a bit more than its sheer volume of returning minutes would suggest.
New this season is that the returning component takes into account a player's class. Past data has shown that returning freshman minutes are more valuable than sophomore minutes which are more valuable than junior minutes. If a player hasn't been ruled out for the season by suspension or injury, he is assumed to be playing for purposes of this calculation.
The weakest part of the system is clearly accounting for new players. It ignores transfers and recruits outside the top 100. (Functionally, recruits outside the top 50-75 don't have much impact in the formula.) Obviously, the majority of teams do not have a top 100 recruit coming on board.
Let's look at the impact of ignoring transfers first. I went back at looked at the teams last season that had "impact transfers" and compared my preseason ranking ("Pred"), which had no knowledge of the transfer, and the team's final ranking ("Act"). (Impact transfers are defined by this Jason King list.)
Transfer, Team Pred Act Diff
Brown, Colorado 116 74 +32
Fuller, USC 116 241 -125
Heslip, Baylor 15 17 -2
Moser, UNLV 18 38 -20
Moultrie, Miss St. 82 89 -7
Rosario, Florida 12 12 0
Spurlock, UCF 93 107 -14
Thames, SD St. 55 69 -14
Turner, Texas A&M 31 114 -83
Wears, UCLA 46 43 +3
White, et al, Iowa St. 120 27 +93
There's really no trend here. I suppose the "impact" part of the transfer list could be better measured. The guys above are basically from power conferences. However, even at lower levels the influence of transfers is difficult to predict. Rakim Sanders had a huge year at Fairfield as one might have anticipated coming from the ACC, and yet the Stags' final ranking (100) didn't differ much from the pre-season (94) either.
I suspect the reason that the system isn't negatively impacted by a lack of transfer data is that it already has a decent grasp on what a team's "replacement level" player looks like. In other words, its estimate of how to handle the minutes not accounted for by returning players or elite recruits isn't so bad. Of course, the system whiffs in some cases. It's not going to handle the bevy of transfers Iowa State brought in last season, led by an NBA first-rounder, but most transfer cases are not this extreme.
Finally, let's look at how the system has fared against the AP preseason poll the past two seasons. I'm going to meet the AP at a neutral site and use a team's tournament seed as the outcome to compare.
Tournament seed by pre-season rank
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
kp 2012 1 2 1 2 1 9 XX 4 5 4 2 7 5 2 3 10 7 6 10 8 3 4 7 1 XX
AP 2012 1 1 2 9 1 2 5 7 4 XX 8 3 2 10 4 XX XX 4 9 XX 6 3 7 12 2
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
kp 2011 1 1 1 1 3 10 XX 5 9 11 6 2 4 2 4 XX 4 7 12 10 5 3 9 3 9
AP 2011 1 10 5 1 1 9 1 2 2 3 4 11 9 3 11 XX 8 7 12 6 XX 7 9 3 2
I don't think there's a clear winner either way, and we're ignoring about 325 teams here anyway (although that's on the AP, not me). I do have to point out that I gave the AP poll a 26-year head start and I only trail it 2-1 in number of times the top four teams have all been one-seeds. However, if we had 20 more years of data, we'd probably find that there's not much more predictive power in my system as compared to the AP poll. I'd even concede the AP might have a small edge. But I'd say the main benefit of the system is that it's an independent data point that isn't concerned if it gets called out for putting Wisconsin #5. (I personally care, though. Please spare my fragile feelings.)
So you get somewhat unorthodox rankings that, at least at the very top, are about as good as the AP poll. At the very, very top, it has nailed the two best teams (if you go by Vegas) heading into the tournament the last two seasons. In 2011 it was Duke/Ohio State, and last season Kentucky/Ohio State. One preseason AP voter had that top two in '11 and no voter had it last season.
The point here is not that I'll nail the top two teams every year or even that that should be your basis for determining whether the system is useful. The system was both lucky and good over the last two seasons, and anyway, this season is much more of a crapshoot. That streak will almost certainly end. (It should go without saying that the top two in the system this season also are not matched by any single voter.) The point is that the system gives you a reasonable prediction and it's one that isn't matched by very many people. Don't ignore the AP poll or my system. They are both points of view worth considering as you gear up for the season. This is one case where subjective opinion and objective data can live in harmony.
Here is another pre-season ranking, this one by Dan Hanner, which picks Valpo nationally at 106, Detroit at 87. In addition, it predicts conference W-L records, giving Detroit the edge and season title with 12-4, while Valpo goes 11-5 (Green Bay 115 10-6, Cleveland St. 141 9-7). Butler is listed at 36 and predicted to tie for the A-10 title with a 12-4 record:
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426 (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426)