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This site http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html runs 10,000 simulations using Sagarin's rankings. Based on that, the most likely result is Valpo, Detroit, and UIC finishing in a three way tie for first at 10-6. Not endorsing, just informing.

6-2 in January.

Yeah, but remember that non-DI games don't count for RPI. So for RPI purposes, Detroit is 3-4 and Youngstown is 4-4. And Detroit could go downhill - they've got a  tough game Saturday against Akron, and then Syracuse on the road. (Of course, if they beat Syracuse it's a big chit for the Horizon, but seriously...).

The MVC probably would want a challenge with the A-10 or Mountain West, or possibly the WCC. I don't know if they'd go for us.

The MAC makes sense, but Horizon and MAC teams already play 20 or more games a year against one another (24 this year). You almost have to see how the other conferences shake out. The Colonial or Conference USA might be more realistic. The OVC might be a step down but would be better than the Summit.

A Detroit fan ranks the top 50 players in the Horizon over the last 20 years. Not many Crusaders, given the short time in the league - just Broekhoff and Wood. http://detroittitanhoops.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=115#p1157

"This isn't about most improved, it is about who from last year is back, and if your postseason POY is back, he earned the right to be preseason POY."


Well, actually, no. It's a prediction poll. Who do you predict will finish first? Who do you predict will be all-conference? Who do you predict will be POY? As they say in investments, past performance... And it's just a little exercise to drum up interest in the off-season. Not worth getting indignant. I think there are a few too many chips sitting on shoulders around here.


Look, I'm not saying the prediction is right. There is definitely a herd mentality to it - McCallum is an easy pick (so is Ryan) and a SID/Coach/AD/writer won't look stupid if he is wrong (same for anyone who voted for Ryan). I agree that it is frustrating to watch reputation top performance. But this is not some great injustice, nor is it irrational to think Ray McCallum will be a better player this year than Ryan Broekhoff. What surprised me more is that Green Bay didn't get a single first place vote.

Anyway, maybe this makes Ryan try a little harder.

So now we have a new story.  Last year was an anomaly.  The guy who stole McCallum's birthright has reached his potential, whereas McCallum will continue to improve by leaps and bounds.  Of course there's no rationale to make such a statement, but then again there doesn't have to be.

Well, that's not the story I told. The story I told is that last year McCallum was really, really good, not an anomaly. In my story, Ryan didn't "steal" anything from McCallum - he played better and earned POY. In my story, RB may or may not have reached his potential; it's less likely that McCallum has, for the reasons you suggest (most scouts view him as having more talent and a higher upside). And there is a rationale for suggesting that McCallum will improve more: 1) while very good, he has not yet reached the peaks most suggested by his high school performance and general assessment by scouts of his abilities, while Ryan, OTOH, has already surpassed them; and 2) I think most players are more likely to improve from sophomore to junior years than from junior to senior years. I think there's pretty good evidence for that.


Like you say, we'll see. But I don't see the need for the attitude.

McCallum vs Broekhoff Hype vs Substance The perception that McCallum is more deserving of PSPOY is deeply rooted in current basketball culture where the consistent and fundamentally sound overall game that Ryan possesses is not as prized as the flashy athleticism that looks good but doesn't always get the job done. Ratings for the NBA All Star layup contest just didn't cut it.

McCallum's numbers actually have quite a bit of substance to them. Still, why would McCallum rank ahead of last season's winner? It's not that hard. He's seen as having a higher upside - which is probably right. Let's put it this way - McCallum was better as a freshman than Broekhoff as a freshman; he was better as a sophomore than Broekhoff as a sophomore. If McCallum improves as much from soph to junior as Ryan did, McCallum will have a phenomenal season. I don't think most voters think Broekhoff is likely to improve much from last year, and I think they see more room for McCallum to continue improving.

Should be among best teams in the league the next two-three years.

I'm really not sure about this. Nick Minnerath, Doug Anderson, Jason Calliste and possibly Ray, Jr. will all be gone after this season. Maybe Ray, Sr. as well.

Calliste is a senior academically, but a junior for eligibility purposes. If he and McCallum come back, it will be pretty easy to plug in Juwan Howard for Anderson, and they should remain very competitive. But yeah, if they lose McCallum, it will be a blow.

Detroit. Private, similar size, similar academics, reasonable geography, Lutheran-Catholic thing, last year's regular-season and tournament champs. Should be among best teams in the league the next two-three years, which will establish rivalry regardless.