Messages

[at-large bids do not matter to us]

I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched.  Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.

Your impression is a mistaken one.  Harvard is 9-1 but Princeton is 7-2.  Since they go head-to-head, all Princeton needs to do is not lose otherwise; if Harvard loses no other game then they will end up tied, and a one-game playoff will determine who will get the bid.

http://www.ivyleaguesports.com/sports/mbkb/2012-13/standings

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!

Murray State winning out would not make them higher than we are because we would have to be winning as well to make the Dance.  Since they are 30+ behind us, plus we beat them head to head, I don't see a problem.  (EKU could be a problem, seeing as they beat us 'by 30'.)

The larger point to make here is that at-large bids do not matter to us, because we are not in line for one.  There is a finite number of them (37) and the lowest of them are seeded as far down as 12, historically.  We are unfortunately not likely to make it that high.

SO, whether Belmont wins or doesn't win, they are probably still in (and probably higher than us).  BUT what happens if they LOSE is that it puts someone in (probably, hopefully) LOWER than us.  We have to have as many teams BELOW us as possible to get a higher seed.  This means we need selected teams to pull upsets to push us into the high 13, low 12 range (depending on number of upsets).

See my above post on conference leaders.  Right now we're better than THIRTEEN teams, but among them, NOT the OVC leader.  We WOULD be higher than them if it weren't Belmont. SO if that "belmont" line becomes EKU or MSU, then we are better than FOURTEEN teams.  Get it?

Belmont losing the conference tourney becomes Missouri's problem, for example.

WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.

CUSA is projected as a one-bid league, per Jerry Palm and Crashing the Dance.  Memphis losing would HELP us because it would put someone else in the dance who's LOWER than us (hopefully not S Miss though).

The WCC could be a two-bid league, but again, it doesn't matter to us! As long as someone other than Gonzaga, St. Mary, or BYU wins, we're golden again.

If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.

That's possible, although I think Missouri's done enough to warrant selection.  But again, that doesn't matter.  Here it's much more dicey because at least 3 teams, and probably 3 more, could knock off Florida and still be ahead of us.  But someone from the bottom half of the league (A&M) could do so and still be below us.

Although with a "name" conference, you would think that the conference tournament winner would get the "bump" you speak of.  But the SEC is not that great at basketball, particularly this year.

Mostly I put the SEC on here to underscore that fact, not because I hope Alabama pulls off the SHOCKER.

Do you see the larger point I'm making, that we need darker horses in the tourney?

I understand what you're getting at.  I just would prefer to have the conference favorites win in the single bid leagues where their RPI are under 40. Those were the ones I was pointing to.

After the way Bradley came back to beat UIC at the Pavilion in their bracketbuster game I just don't see Detroit losing to UIC.

Detroit will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, in Detroit, Philly and then Chicago. UIC will have a home game Tuesday and then Detroit on Saturday. Detroit will be exhausted from a lot of travel, UIC will be getting home cooking, and sleeping in their own beds.  I predict a very tired Junior and company will look sluggish and lose it in the end against UIC.

Um, you'll have to construct a scenario in which they get the 4 seed in order to deny them a bye.

Detroit loses to both Loyola and UIC.
WSU beats both UIC and YSU.
GB beats Valpo and Milwaukee.

This would result in:

1. Valpo    11-5 or 12-4
2. WSU     11-5
3. GB        11-5
4. Detroit   10-6

4 out of 256 chance (Tuesday's game at the ARC and the Loyola-CSU game don't matter).

I guess I meant something that would prevent them from getting the 2 seed so they have to play 3 games at the ARC. We really want them to play 3 but if there's still possibilities for them to finish 4th and have to play 4 then by all means, GO THAT SCENARIO!

I was under the impression that Harvard had already clinched.  Similar to how Detroit can tie us, but we will host the HL tourny with one more win, I thought Harvard was in the tournament.

If Belmont loses the OVC, I think they still make the tournament.  Having Murray St. in the tournament as well might hurt us more than it'll help as they might get a "conference tournament winner" bump and be seeded higher than us. Go Belmont, keep that a 1 bid league!

WCC and CUSA are already multi-bid leagues. Having a dark horse win would hurt us similar to Murray.

If Florida wins the SEC I think they could possibly be a one bid league. I'm actually rooting for that over a dark horse coming out and Florida taking a 2 line and the dark horse taking a 9 or 10 line spot.

[Team]

So I was curious to see how Detroit could end up without a bye. I think I've conceived an excellent and very reasonable plan that puts Detroit on the 3 line. I've added what seed they would end up with this scenario, they are currently sorted by their current seed.

Team	Opp #1	Result	Opp #2	Result
#1 Valparaiso	YSU	W	@UWGB	L
#3 Detroit	Loyola	W	@UIC	L
#4 UWGB	UWM	W	Valpo	W
#2 Wright St.	@UIC	W	YSU	W
#6 YSU	@Valpo	L	@WSU	L
#5 UIC	WSU	L	Detroit	W
#7 Cleveland St.	@Loyola	W
#8 Loyola	@Detroit	L	CSU	L
#9 UWM	@UWGB	L

[Broekhoff Named Finalist for Lou Henson Award]

via ValpoAthletics Broekhoff Named Finalist for Lou Henson Award Valparaiso senior forward Ryan Broekhoff (Frankston, Victoria, Australia/Australian Institute of Sport) was named Monday as one of 25 finalists for the Lou Henson Award, which honors the top mid-major player in college basketball.  Fans can participate in the fan vote, which accounts for one-third of the final vote, by visiting VoteLouHenson.com.

Already voted!

Make that another vote for Ryan!!

I voted 3 times.  I might go back and throw some more in later.

The Junior story is actually pretty short so no real "highlights".

Here's the story

Detroit point guard Ray McCallum has moved up to No. 35 on Chad Ford's latest Big Board. What are the chances that the junior leaves school early for the NBA?

McCallum's minutes are up only slightly from where they were last year, but his numbers have made a big jump. His scoring is up from 15.4 to 18.8 ppg, his field goal percentage is up from 45.8 to 49.9, his assist-to-turnover ratio has went from 1.79 to 2.31.

On Tuesday, he padded those stats with a performance the college basketball world hasn't seen in nearly a decade. Ryan Feldman of ESPN Stats & Info explains McCallum's accomplishment:

"McCallum had 16 points, 13 rebounds, eight assists and four steals in Detroit's win over Cleveland State. McCallum set career highs in offensive rebounds (seven) and total rebounds. He's the first player with at least 16 points, 13 rebounds, eight assists and four steals in a regulation game since Connecticut 's Ben Gordon (17 points, 16 rebounds, 11 assists, five steals vs Iona) in December 2003."

That's the kind of stat-sheet stuffing that gets the attention of NBA scouts, and if McCallum can continue to play his best ball at the end of the season he could solidify a spot as a late first-rounder in 2013. Right now, Ford lists him as the No. 7 point guard but if he continues to put up big games he could conceivably move ahead of guys like Arkansas' B.J. Young, NC State's Lorenzo Brown and Texas' Myck Kabongo. On top of that, there's no certainty that Young, Brown and Kabongo will even enter the draft, and if any return to school that would also help McCallum's chances of being drafted in the first round.

As a junior, McCallum will probably have to feel strongly that he'll be a first-rounder (where contracts are guaranteed) in order for him to leave school early. The fact that he plays for a small school like Detroit makes that especially true.

[It'll depend on what our young team is doing]

Obviously, it depends on what each team is losing from this year's group, but those are at least better name programs to hopefully entice the locals. 

It'll depend on what our young team is doing, also.  But, hopefully we're at least able to provide good, competitive games.

Well, we won'y be the oldest team in D1 as we are now, but we will be young and old.  On the "Old" front we will have Bobby, as a 5th year Senior, Jorda and LaVonte as Seniors, David Chadwick as a 4th year Junior, Vashil as a Junior and Keith Carter as a Sophomore.  Then you add in the six freshman.  So our starting lineup could very well include three seniors a junior and a sophomore.  What happens after that that is the experience question!!  Of course we still have one openning and possibly Bryce can add an experienced guy who could play right away.  We'll see

Don't forget about Rossie who will be a Sophomore or Junior, will he get the redshirt or not?

So I'm not sure how accurate the PBP from ESPN is, but this is what the players who were on the court did during Loyola's 19-4 run.

Ben Boggs	2 TO, 2 PF
Bobby Capobianco	1 Reb
Erik Buggs	0-2 FG, 1 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 TO
LaVonte Dority	1 PF
Kevin Van Wijk	0-1 FG, 1-2 FT, 1 PF
Matt Kenney	0-1 FG, 2 Reb, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 1 TO, 1 PF
Ryan Broekhoff	0-3 FG, 1 Reb, 1 PF
Will Bogan	1-3 FG

Now I'm not sure which one of these stat lines were so impressive (maybe Kenney's stat filling line?) to keep Coleman on the bench, or what Coleman could have done off the court (if it is actually disciplinary, which both beats have said it's not), but it seems ridiculous you couldn't shake things up and bring in one of the better shooters and more active players on the team. I was extremely impressed with how Coleman played against UIC and Youngstown, it's mindboggling to me why he can't see some action.

So I listened to the first half and started to watch the Blackhawks game after we went into the half with a 15 point lead.  I followed the game on twitter until I saw it was tied.  Started listening to the game again and they went on their run to raise the lead back up to 12.  Looking at the PBP it appears that we only allowed 2 points off TOs in the second half and that was after we had built the lead back up to 10. It's concerning that its happened twice in a row, but I'm hoping it's more of a fluke than a trend.

you are officially required to listen to every game from here on out. no more jinxing by changing the channel for you!

Even the home games? Because I'm already at those... but I guess I could stream WAKE in the ARC!

So I listened to the first half and started to watch the Blackhawks game after we went into the half with a 15 point lead.  I followed the game on twitter until I saw it was tied.  Started listening to the game again and they went on their run to raise the lead back up to 12.  Looking at the PBP it appears that we only allowed 2 points off TOs in the second half and that was after we had built the lead back up to 10. It's concerning that its happened twice in a row, but I'm hoping it's more of a fluke than a trend.

http://photography226.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/erik-rowdy-lavonte.jpg?w=774&h=437 I'm not sure that's LaVonte, is it?  Looks like maybe Keith Carter? Love your pics, as always.

Thanks, I have corrected that mis-labelled picture. Glad you like the photos!

The photos are great and I always play the "Can I find myself in them" game.

Valpo... still in 9th. Vote today! http://www.facebook.com/ilovecollegehoops/app_585093751508025

We were down to 10 yesterday, but we're back up to 9.  Voting ends Friday. If you have a gmail account you can register as many accounts as you'd want by adding periods and plus signs to your user name side of the address.

We don't get a whole lot more then the associated press gives from our beat writers

Ouch.

I wouldn't take too much stock in what Truth is saying.  You've done a fantastic job. I think we're more frustrated over the rotation decisions than the reporting of said decisions.

I've asked about Coleman each of the last two games. Both times it's been the same answer. "The guys we had in there were playing well, it was an in-game decision." "Jordan hasn't done anything wrong." "We like the rhythm of this group out there."

Look, would he have helped during that run against Detroit? Maybe in hindsight. Valpo was blowing out UIC or Milwaukee a few weeks back and they moved Coleman to the point in the second half. It didn't go very well from what I remember. Jordan isn't the answer at the point and you're not going to take out Bogan or Kenney when they were shooting like they were at that point. I still think Coleman will help this team this season.

I agree with the way Bogan and Kenney were playing, you don't take them out for Coleman.  I'd love to see an extended period with Coleman at point and Dority at the 2.

After buggs fouled out, this is what I would have done. I would have put the remaining 5 seniors out there bogan boggs kenney rowdy and kvw. Sure no true point gaurd but at least you could put it on their shoulders. Let them be responsible for the teams fate on Saturday night.

Well Rowdy would have been good as a point forward

He's going to love LA. Idiot...

The lack of play from Coleman is shocking to say the least.  He was in to take some PG duties when Dority got hurt and Buggs needed rest against YSU and didn't look terrible. God help us if Bogan if running the point. Granted against YSU we didn't look good either so...

I got to the game early so I could watch some of the warmups and see how Coleman looked.  He was moving around fine, shot looked pure as usual and didn't seem to hobble or limp when in the layup line and when running in and out of the ARC. Sure wish there was an explanation for his absence.

Dority has been hurting, which has been part of the reason for his minutes drop.  No idea on Coleman, so hopefully that gets answered.  Both stand to earn significant minutes next year, which could also be keeping them around.

Yeah, Coleman and Dority (and to an extent Bobby, but he's getting consistent minutes now) would only hurt themselves by speaking out about their playing time this year.  They know that next year they'll all be starting and getting 30 minutes/game, and they'll be the team leaders. With a bench as young as ours will be next year they know that the key to our success next season will be strong leadership from those 3

Any idea what's up with coleman...no mins last game...I don't buy the match up thing either...

Its quite crowded in the front court. While I believe we'd be best off starting Buggs-Kenney-Boggs with Coleman and Dority first off the bench and Bogan being a situational defender and 3pt specialist. I'm probably in a minority here thinking that.

Hey Detroit:

20 wins
2 or less home losses
.500 or better on the road+neutral court

This came from the Detroit blog.  They want Nick 1st team HL.  He did have a career night against us.  Went for over 30 points....My problem is they have no respect for Kevin.

This would be a good time to plug my PER ratings http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1201 http://tinyurl.com/021013PER Using my numbers as a guide and thinking things through, I'd have Rowdy, Junior, Perry, and Van Wijk for sure. Averkamp or Minnerath would be my 5th. Depends on whether you prefer the player with the better numbers or impact with a better team.

I've got to ask, how much does Kevin's FG% inflate his PER?  The 4.7 boards per game seems awfully low for a guy playing his position and at his size, especially when a bench guy playing 6 minutes less per game is grabbing more.  I feel like that will hurt KVW's 1st team chances.

Was he dressed on Saturday?  Did he participate in shoot-around?  I didn't get a look at him.  Or maybe he's always been dressed/in warmups and looked more or less ready to play?

Hasn't been dressed in a while, always in the black sweatsuit.

If Ray Sr. leaves, then Detroit may lose the monopoly of scummy players in the Midwest who consistently get technicals, run up the score, dunk while up 20 on the final possession, or write songs about thrift shops.

I have had inklings of this before, but this settles it:  you, sir, are someone I can see myself having a beer with at pass times or something.  whatever they call it these days anyway.  well done. and the best part:  Jr. is the leading scorer in the HL, at 18.5 or something.  Ryan is second at 16.8, but I calculated the exact numbers today, and because of the vast disparity in their minutes, Ryan scores 21.13 per 40 and Ray 21.06 / 40.  So he can't even claim to be the best scorer.

Stacks, and it's pretty awesome.

You are assuming that Ray Sr has any say in who plays ... Am I the only one who thinks Ray Sr is coaching his last year at UDM?

Why would they fire the guy who led them to their first NCAA appearance in 15 years? I mean the whole Asst. Coach/AD scandal probably won't touch him since it was technically over his head.

If the Summit is "dying" then why did Denver just move there?