Mid-major 'at large' NCAA tournament births

vu84v2 · February 25, 2018, 10:33:02 AM

Despite Valpo having an off year, discussion continues about wanting to be in a place to be able to achieve an at-large NCAA birth (i.e. be in a multiple bid conference). The move to the MVC seems to have increased the probably of that.

However, everyone might want to consider how difficult it can be to achieve multiple bids. Consider these teams (without names) - each of which may not get at-large births if you look at the various prognosticators. None are from the A10 or American Conference and I have excluded Gonzaga and Saint Mary's.

Team 1: 24-5 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 15/SOS: 55/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 9-3 (Ok, this team is pretty likely to get in)
Team 2: 22-6 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 24/SOS: 84/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 6-3
Team 3: 22-5 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 25/SOS: 92/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 3-4
Team 4: 24-5 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 34/SOS: 164/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 5-1
Team 5: 20-8 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 36/SOS: 71/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 2-5
Team 6: 21-6 (against D1 opponents)/RPI: 47/SOS: 143/record versus top 100 RPI teams: 4-4

A good Valpo team in previous seasons looks very much like Teams 3, 4 and 6...and I strongly doubt any of those teams will get an at-large birth if they do not win their conference tournament.

VUGrad1314 · February 25, 2018, 11:50:38 AM

This is why a better non-conference schedule is so critical and why I harp so much on that issue.

VU2014 · February 25, 2018, 01:16:38 PM

Quote from: VUGrad1314 on February 25, 2018, 11:50:38 AM
This is why a better non-conference schedule is so critical and why I harp so much on that issue.

I give a pass for the non-conf schedule this season. We were never going to be a at-large team this season. This season was training wheels for such a young team.

When the Coaches think we're going to have the ability to challenge for a at-large, that is when it needs to better. But scheduling is a tough business.

vu84v2 · February 25, 2018, 04:06:34 PM

Quote from: VU2014 on February 25, 2018, 01:16:38 PM
Quote from: VUGrad1314 on February 25, 2018, 11:50:38 AM
This is why a better non-conference schedule is so critical and why I harp so much on that issue.

I give a pass for the non-conf schedule this season. We were never going to be a at-large team this season. This season was training wheels for such a young team.

When the Coaches think we're going to have the ability to challenge for a at-large, that is when it needs to better. But scheduling is a tough business.

My point in this post, however, is that Valpo's strong performance and good scheduling in previous seasons would not get them into the NCAA tournament. They likely have to do better than they ever have.

The very poor non-conference home schedule likely lead to the reduced attendance and interest (obviously coupled with the team's struggles after the first eight games). The non-conference home schedule was awful (except for the Utah State game, which was arranged by the MVC) and should never happen again.

justducky · February 27, 2018, 08:21:33 PM

#45 RPI Boise St with 6 losses at 108 San Diego St tonight at 10:00 CST. This should be a necessary step for Lexus to retain at-large hopes. If any of you get CBS Sports Network you are in luck. For me that is channel 232.

justducky · February 28, 2018, 11:07:08 AM

San Diego St 72, Boise St 64

Never say never but this 7'th loss reduces their RPI to 48 and their at-large hopes are very thin. Maybe this could help Loyola or maybe not

wh · February 28, 2018, 12:49:00 PM

Quote from: justducky on February 28, 2018, 11:07:08 AM
San Diego St 72, Boise St 64

Never say never but this 7'th loss reduces their RPI to 48 and their at-large hopes are very thin. Maybe this could help Loyola or maybe not

The perennial Selection Committee tie breaker excuse in favor of a major with a lower RPI over a worthy Mid invariably comes down to bad losses. That table was set for Loyola with their 17-point blowout loss at Milwaukee. That's the Milwaukee with a losing conference and overall record in 1 of the worst conferences in D-1 basketball, and an eyelash away from membership in the esteemed bottom 100 teams. If that isn't enough, add another blowout loss to Boise State. The 2 best teams in 2 equally highest rated mid major conferences go head-to-head and Loyola loses by 34 points. Are you kidding?!

The bottom line is Loyola has exactly zero chance for an at-large, and, taking my rose-colored mid-major glasses off, they probably don't deserve one. I can't think of a major program anywhere in D-1 with at-large credentials experiencing anything close. As to Loyola's impressive RPI, the Selection Committee will simply say there's more to it than that. And there is. The days of mids getting at-large bids over majors based on a better RPI are over.

justducky · February 28, 2018, 02:44:42 PM

I just took my first look at the 2018 Bracket Matrix and Loyola has been almost to a man slotted as a 12 seed even if they win at St Louis (too low). Boise is projected as the 7'th team out even before the loss to SDS. So a couple of the best mid major contenders don't even look to be under serious consideration.

A quick glance down the seeding line showed me only 4 teams who I would still classify as mid majors who will or might get in as at-large candidates. Rhode Island was one and they were beaten last night at home by St Joe by 30 points.

St Bonaventure is a maybe who took 3 overtimes at home yesterday to beat Davidson. St Mary's and Nevada look reasonably safe but who knows. I no longer view Gonzaga or Wichita St to be true mid majors although many of their conference mates still are. Did I miss anybody?

talksalot · February 28, 2018, 03:56:16 PM

Are they all looking to get #1 seed in the NIT? Loyola is guaranteed an NIT berth with the conference championship regular season... Gee I wonder what it's like to get a #1 NIT berth and take it all the way to the Garden?... hosting a P5 team along the way...

wh · February 28, 2018, 04:07:26 PM

Quote from: justducky on February 28, 2018, 11:07:08 AM
San Diego St 72, Boise St 64

Never say never but this 7'th loss reduces their RPI to 48 and their at-large hopes are very thin. Maybe this could help Loyola or maybe not

It will help somebody, but it won't be Loyola. It just opens a slot for another Major and more Mid Major feelings of rejection.

vu84v2 · February 28, 2018, 05:20:31 PM

Team 4 in my original post is Loyola. i agree that they have no shot at an at-large birth, due to their loss to Milwaukee.

justducky · February 28, 2018, 05:23:42 PM

I somehow missed Middle Tennessee. They have 5 losses with 2 difficult games remaining. They are now seeded in Bracket Matrix as an auto bid 11 which is 3 teams ahead of Loyola. So

If the stars were to perfectly align I could picture the top 7 conferences grabbing every at-large or all but maybe one. I am sure that statement will send orgasmic joy to all the 11, 12 or 13 loss super teams that are worried about their futures.

justducky · March 08, 2018, 08:12:35 PM

A weak Southern Miss over Middle Tennessee in overtime. I would think that puts them in the NIT.