Valpo vs Missouri St 1/15 4 pm at the ARC

[oklahomamick]

We have a pretty good record against the MAC and OVC teams this year.  Actually the OVC is looking for schools.  Maybe we can join Western Illinois as a package deal that couldn't refuse. 

[covufan]

Lottich is now 91-88 at Valpo over the last 6 years.

But, take out his first season (24-9) and his record is really 67-79.

But those 67 wins include 8  "wins" over Trinity, East-West, and other type of programs.

Take those out and we're left with a 59-79 record against Division 1 play over the past five years.

This is telling. When Homer had much difficulty in years 2-4, the AD must have been able to evaluate the talent of Homer coaching, the talent of the assistant coaches, and the incoming talent coming into the program. He must have also seen improvement in how they played and competed as a team. Otherwise, no one would have given Homer another year, except for the potential recruit Homer had at home.


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[oklahomamick]

That was before the program had expectations.  Now there is a standard. 

[justducky]

I haven't heard anything specific about Trevor but it appears that the back problem is limiting his play? Even in a dismal performance our team handed out 13 assists with just 7 TO's.

Point guard specific--- Assists to Turn Overs     Trevor 42-15.   Darius 31-12    Preston 13-2 Which total 86-29 and they also combine for 26 steals with 14 by DeAveiro in 245 minutes. Actually this the only bright spot on the season that I can think of.

[AB]

I think back to the 2019 game at Arkansas in a hostile road environment in Little Rock. Ambushed in the first 12 minutes of the game by 3 current NBA players, but fought back to take the lead at half, had the lead with 3 minutes left in the game. Javon Elevated the play of so many around him in that game and many others that season. Who does that on this team? Does our team know who's team it is? Is it Kobe? Krikke? Anderson? Edwards? Can this team/coaching staff figure out the chemistry on offense before the season ends?  Why is this team so inconsistent with energy on defense? DeAvario needs to play more. Good energy, plays hard on defense, good ball handler.

[justducky]

Things must be bad. Remember all those guys who transferred out last spring? I'm actually starting to miss them.     

[nkvu]

I wonder about Valpo's financial situation. Absent a wealthy alum who can just write a check, does Valpo have the resources to fund a new or redesigned basketball facility?  Does Valpo have the resources to buy out Matt's contract if they wanted to?  And yes, Matt may be a great guy yadda yadda yadda, but ultimately you are what your record says you are, and his record has not been very good.   If they don't have the resources then all talk about what needs to be done is pointless.  If they do and they choose not to utilize them then that tells you all you need to know about how the university feels about the program. If they don't then absent some wealthy and generous benefactor, nothing will change.  Adding two successful programs to the conference will cement our position in the bottom third of the conference. We will become consistent losers and the university can say we are a D1 program in the MVC to potential students without mentioning that we don't seriously want to compete. That is not a program I care to follow. At this stage of my life I will not further invest in a program that doesn't care to continue a tradition of success.  I have local teams I can follow, and even the lowly Bengals have finally invested enough to field a playoff game winner after 31 years of futility. So Valpo, show me you care enough to start making some changes.

[hailcrusaders]

To put it bluntly, JFL is the only player we've had since Peters that I felt confident we could build a winning program around. Until, of course, he transferred. Whether it was truly to be closer to family in Chicago (as if Valpo isn't close enough?) or other factors were at play, we'll never know. But part of building a successful program is keeping those key players happy enough to want to stick around. We've taken enough Ls on the transfer market that I just don't think the culture here behind the scenes is good enough.

Digressing a bit, I like DeAveiro and the energy he brings. Reminds me a bit of Erik Buggs. Hope he gets more minutes.

[nkvu]

Digressing a bit, I like DeAveiro and the energy he brings. Reminds me a bit of Erik Buggs. Hope he gets more minutes.
[/quote]

He must have really shown something in this game. My assessment after the Loyola game was that he isn't quick enough to beat defenders off the dribble and that bigger guards could easily back him down any time they wanted and score over him. My thought was that he really needs to hit the weights this off season and bulk up a bit. But again I didn't watch this game so...

[wh]

Last year's version of Donovan Clay wanted to play the wing exclusively, even though he was a poor 3-point shooter and couldn't beat his defender off the dribble. When they played him inside, posted him up, etc. he pouted, argued with the coaches, and generally spread ill will. One of the reasons JO gave for leaving was that Clay was given preferential treatment. Despite getting his way, he and his helicopter dad abandoned ship.

I had to chuckle watching him play yesterday. His offensive role at MSU is far more limited than it ever was at Valpo. He's still a good defender and rebounder, but he's the last scoring option.

[humbleopinion]

It is worth noting that we made our run at the end of the first half when Prim was on the bench. Before the game I wondered if we had an answer for the duo of Prim and Mosley, and we just don't have the strength inside to neutralize Prim, and Mosley was really, really good last night.  His ability to answer even when well-guarded after each time that Valpo looked like we could threaten, ensured that no momentum could be gained.

It was clear that Trevor was in pain; even in warmups he occasionally winced when throwing up a three.

Kevion has been hitting threes in recent games, but he has such a low release that Donovan's length took away that shot.

Against Loyola, Kobe was able to finish around the rim, not yesterday. I think we all expected that he would be a go-to guy this year, but he hasn't performed as he did when wearing a Badger uniform.

Prim pushed Krikke off of the block and limited his moves in the paint.  He ended up being a couple feet further from the bucket when he would try to lay it in.  I don't have a shot chart, but I would guess that his points came when he was facing the basket or when Prim was on the bench.

Is it a surprise that Kithier was in foul trouble trying to corral Prim?

It's been a while since I have been in a crowd that has been so dead, and I really believe that Mosley was the biggest reason for that.  Adding to the misery was a "Valpo fan" who thought that it was his responsibility to take advantage of the crowd's silence to yell at Lottich. Who knows, maybe he is one of the posters on this board.  The behavior did nothing to support a struggling team.

BTW, is it MoSt's usual practice not to participate in introductions (they just huddled instead), or did they mistakenly fear that Donovan would be subjected to abuse by the fans? 

[justducky]

His offensive role at MSU is far more limited than it ever was at Valpo. He's still a good defender and rebounder, but he's the last scoring option.

Clay is a fantastic fit in this supporting role and he now clearly recognizes those situations when he needs to finish! Good for him and good coaching as well. He might have been the best Valpo player on the floor yesterday. Maybe we should all transfer our support to MSU?

[Valpo89]

It's been a while since I have been in a crowd that has been so dead, and I really believe that Mosley was the biggest reason for that.  Adding to the misery was a "Valpo fan" who thought that it was his responsibility to take advantage of the crowd's silence to yell at Lottich. Who knows, maybe he is one of the posters on this board.  The behavior did nothing to support a struggling team.

Where was the fan sitting, and what did he say? My seats are behind the visitor's bench, top row of the lower section. I didn't hear anything.
I may have been thinking some things.

[justducky]

BTW, is it MoSt's usual practice not to participate in introductions (they just huddled instead), or did they mistakenly fear that Donovan would be subjected to abuse by the fans? 

I believe that is what they usually or frequently do so I didn't take notice. Clay got some applause when announced. 

Is it a surprise that Kithier was in foul trouble trying to corral Prim?

No but he did foul out in Mileek McMillan like minutes while largely being owned by Prim.

I like DeAveiro and the energy he brings. Reminds me a bit of Erik Buggs. Hope he gets more minutes.

Is it time for our old or new coach to start rebuilding? Against Northern Iowa we could start Hedstrom, Woodyard, DeAveiro, Ruedinger and "Pick your Poison". Maybe we can shrink the point spread?

[usc4valpo]

Basketball is the flagship sport at Valpo and was successful. I am guessing the $250M campaign does not guarantee  revenue, or the scholarship discounts given to students to promote enrollment has been too generous.

Was Valpo really in a position to move to a conference where higher financial commitment was necessary?

[humbleopinion]

Where was the fan sitting, and what did he say? My seats are behind the visitor's bench, top row of the lower section. I didn't hear anything.
I may have been thinking some things.

It was after a foul was called on Kithier -- not a terrible call.  He yelled for about thirty seconds, "Lottich stand up for your team, Lottich stand up for your team..."

I felt like the refs played a role in the Loyola game, but last night I thought that they did a pretty good job.

[Chairback]

I have been unable to attend any games live this year but a few friends in the chairback section mentioned the yelling fan to me after the game.  It was the first thing they brought up.  Apparently it was very loud and Lottich had to hear it.  Some
people just can't control themselves I guess.

The die hard fan base is waning for sure. If this continues expect a bigger drop off in attendance next year.   

[wh]

Is it time for our old or new coach to start rebuilding?

Matt will remain as coach this year and next. Valparaiso University is in no position to buy out his contract, and that assumes they're even thinking about it. The university is dealing with a significant budget shortfall as it is. They've cut programs and laid off people. There's no way they're going to throw away money buying out a coaching contract.

[Just Sayin]

We won 8 Div1 games last year as I recall. I think we have 6 Div1 wins under our belt to date. I'm not so sure we will exceed that great achievement this year. Maybe 9?
KenPom has us winning two more this year. We did set a new record of getting beat by two Div2 teams this year.  Things are looking good for the future. Go Valpo.
I'm sure as hell not buying season tickets. There was a time very long ago when I couldn't wait to buy them. Those days are over.

[NativeCheesehead]

Wh, if you're correct, what a horrible job of negotiating MLB did on Lottich's contract extension, tying his legacy to a coach based on 4 days in March 2020.

If we finish in the bottom four of the conference for the fourth time in five years and Lottich is retained, I will object in the only way I am able as a fan. With my wallet. For the first time since my graduation in 99, I will not spend a dime on this program. No donations, no season tickets, no parking pass, etc.

[justducky]

Is it time for our old or new coach to start rebuilding?

Matt will remain as coach this year and next. Valparaiso University is in no position to buy out his contract, and that assumes they're even thinking about it. The university is dealing with a significant budget shortfall as it is. They've cut programs and laid off people. There's no way they're going to throw away money buying out a coaching contract.

Unfortunate because elsewhere he would likely be gone by midweek. Might he offer his resignation?

As to the rebuilding portion of my question I'd like to know your thinking. Matt seems unable to hold on to players even when times and prospects are good. I'm sure you've noticed that times aren't good and I wonder if prospects for key players returning isn't quickly diminishing.

Please take your time answering as we are at an important fork in the road.

[Just Sayin]

Wh, if you're correct, what a horrible job of negotiating MLB did on Lottich's contract extension, tying his legacy to a coach based on 4 days in March 2020.

If we finish in the bottom four of the conference for the fourth time in five years and Lottich is retained, I will object in the only way I am able as a fan. With my wallet. For the first time since my graduation in 99, I will not spend a dime on this program. No donations, no season tickets, no parking pass, etc.

Money talks, BS walks.

[mj]

At this point, the longer he sticks around at Valpo, the more damage he does to his own reputation as a coach. Especially with another offseason where his players desert him.

Hopefully he realizes that and does the right thing for everyone. Plus it allows him to go out on his own terms.

[Old Timer]

Yesterday's game was indeed perplexing. I was thinking from prior comments that tended to be an out of control team. That was not the case. Their defensive pressure the first half greatly reduced high percentage shots in the first half. It appeared we could dent Missouri States armor with a more open attack in the second half. The result was about the same. When we did have little mini runs the Missouri State coach was calling time outs. He was not going to lose control. Always saw 3 or 4 purple jerseys to one white in the offensive rebounding war. I will be interested to see how Matt approaches this team on the road and what adjustments are made.

I was sitting several rows away from the vocal fan. He has been loud throughout the years. Actually, I have friends who changed their seats as a direct result of his past actions. The most perplexing part was some inappropriate language and the duration of the rant. Matt is in the proverbial kitchen and there is heat. However, in my opinion the rant was inappropriate.

[vok22]

I think the most concerning part of this whole situation is the lack of ANY sign of progress over the years. It is a flat line. Doesn't seem like Lottich has learned really anything on the job. We have been having the same issues his entire career, in game coaching and player retention. Add to the list the lackadaisical attitude the team takes to all but a handful of games, offensive confusion, and general inconsistency. These are all issues the critics pointed out in his first year as coach. 6 years later, they are the same issues. I remember noticing how much worse the offense looked Alec Peters senior year compared to his first 3, but just attributed it to Keith Carter not being allowed to return. Then for the next few years I kept saying "all we need is a good solid point guard that doesn't turn the ball over, can shoot, and run the offense." We have that on our team now. In fact, if they all qualified, all 3 of our point guards would have top 30 assist to turnover ratios. The fact of the matter is there is no offense to run.