HL Superconference

[HorizonLeagueFan]

I don't get this thinking at all.  By adding three teams the HL won't necessarily make up for the loss of Butler.

This is a great point.  While we're not talking a huge amount of revenue, like with the B1G, for example, we're still talking some revenue, and replacing one with three just means less for everyone.

You guys really need to read the article before you post.  It answers most of your questions.  The HL is only looking at teams that have proven at large potential.  The schools in the article are schools that have contacted the HL.  It doesn't mean we are interested in any of them.  They are just the schools that have contacted us.  From what I am hearing we want to add 3 teams.  Not just any 3 teams.  We want 3 teams with at large potential.  The HL wants to add programs that can help get to the point where we are a consistent 2+ bid conference.   If we are consistently a 2 bid conference we will all make more money even though we have 12 mouths to feed instead of 10.
And FYI, the HL is looking for the best 3 schools to meet the 5 criteria set in the article.  Being a private school is not one of the criteria.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Maybe, rather, you need to read posts before you tell me what I need to read.  How does anything you wrote disprove what I wrote?


I'm sorry, putting "at-large potential" (there, I fixed your lack of hyphen for you) in bold two times doesn't hide the flaws in your argument.  "At-large potential" speaks as much to the league (if not more) than the quality of the team itself.


Name the last team--other than Butler--to earn an at-large bid.  How are you going to find THREE teams that will earn at-large bids  (oh, sorry, "potential"...hell...anyone has potential as long as they're DI) interested in the Horizon?  If they had true potential, they'd probably be looking at joining the A-10 (east) or the WCC (west).

[HorizonLeagueFan]

From the article:

At-large potential

The second item on the growth agenda, LeCrone said, is identifying programs that have won games in the NCAA tournament and received at-large berths into the field. Butler expanded the Horizon's profile with its success in March Madness, and the conference has received two bids three times the last 10 years (2003, 2007 and 2009).

"We can identify fairly easily probably a dozen programs that are built for at-large," LeCrone said. "They've always had at-large opportunities and won games in the tournament. We want to collect data on those schools and compare them to our schools and prepare a list of possible expansion candidates."

Schools like Oakland, Robert Morris, Murray State, and Belmont fit that criteria.  They have all made recent trips to the NCAA and come from lower rated conferences.  Use Belmont as an example.  They finished 26-7 last year with an RPI of 58.  They haven't gotten an at large bid, but they have the potential to get there from the HL.  They were in the Atlantic Sun last year and will be in the OVC next year.  Those conferences are ranked 20 and 21 respectively.  Almost every game they played in their conference last year hurt their RPI and their at large potential.  Playing in the HL (usually ranked between 11-15) is going to enhance their chances at getting an at large bid. 

You ask why a team like this would want to join the HL.  The answer is simple.  They have a chance to get an at large bid from the HL.  Historically, the HL gets 4 at large bids every decade since it's inception.  The teams we are looking at have next to no chance to get an at large bid from their current conference (unless they go almost undefeated like Murray State did this year).  They also have a chance to get a decent NCAA tournament seed coming out of the HL.  Even though Belmont was 26-7 with an RPI of 58 last year, they got a 14 seed.  Most years, HL teams are going to get much better seeds than that. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I would agree, especially with the last two sentences of your statement.  However, I'll believe that Belmont wants to be in the Horizon the day after Jon LeCrone announces it.  They just made a change and I'm sure it's better for them to be there than here.

[oklahomamick]

DePaul is never coming to the HL.  They make more money from their share of Big East tournament money and the Big East TV contract than all of the HL teams make combined. 

Yes, this might be true.  However, there might not even be a Big East after the new BCS Bowls/playoff negotiations are completed.  Right now the discussions are between Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and ACC, as if the Big East doesn't matter and will get shafted. 

[oklahomamick]

Anyone interested in ORU?  brings a baseball team and good basketball. 

[crusadermoe]

Sure    I guess they will always have a prayer.

[wh]

From the article:

At-large potential
The second item on the growth agenda, LeCrone said, is identifying programs that have won games in the NCAA tournament and received at-large berths..."

Schools like Oakland, Robert Morris, Murray State, and Belmont fit that criteria.  They have all made recent trips to the NCAA and come from lower rated conferences.  Use Belmont as an example.

Belmont has never won a game in the tournament, so technically they don't fit the criteria reported in the article that you keep encouraging everyone to stay focused on.   Seriously though, they have been to the Dance several times in recent years and remind me of Valpo when we were dominating the Mid Con. The biggest drawback I see to Belmont is distance.  Nashville is hundreds of miles away from the nearest HL school. They would almost have to be part of a package deal with Murray State to make any sense. 

[VULB#62]

I'll point to my previous post on June 13th:  "Why is Belmont even being discussed?"  that even questions them being in the conversation.  And I concur with WH that their move to the OVC is a duplicate of Valpo to the HL from the Mid-Con.

Does anyone really think that Belmont will skip from the OVC after one year?  Their move there has strengthened the OVC just like Valpo's move has strengthened the HL.  The OVC move (or the Valpo move scenario) is representative of the strategy the HL needs to follow once again:  Find the dominant conference champion of a slightly lesser conference with multiple NCAA visits (and maybe a win here or there) and bring them into the fold >>and/or<< bring in that upper level competitor from a conference a bit higher than the HL that received a couple of at-large bids (but was not able to quite rise to the conference Alpha male role in the time frame they wanted).  BTW everyone is still mentioning Oakland, and maybe geographically it's a fit, but LaCrone's statements seem to be casting a wider net for bigger fish.

[dylanrocks]

I don't get this thinking at all.  By adding three teams the HL won't necessarily make up for the loss of Butler.

This is a great point.  While we're not talking a huge amount of revenue, like with the B1G, for example, we're still talking some revenue, and replacing one with three just means less for everyone.

You guys really need to read the article before you post.  It answers most of your questions.  The HL is only looking at teams that have proven at large potential.  The schools in the article are schools that have contacted the HL.  It doesn't mean we are interested in any of them.  They are just the schools that have contacted us.  From what I am hearing we want to add 3 teams.  Not just any 3 teams.  We want 3 teams with at large potential.  The HL wants to add programs that can help get to the point where we are a consistent 2+ bid conference.   If we are consistently a 2 bid conference we will all make more money even though we have 12 mouths to feed instead of 10.
And FYI, the HL is looking for the best 3 schools to meet the 5 criteria set in the article.  Being a private school is not one of the criteria.

Thank you.

As to the question of Belmont, TCU jumped to the Big 12 before ever playing a game in the Big East. As with the binding nature of a coach's contract, loyalty to a conference is a thing of the distant past.

[VULB#62]

Got a point there.  That is BCS stuff, but I guess the mid-majors can act like major-majors.

[crusaderjoe]

I don't get this thinking at all.  By adding three teams the HL won't necessarily make up for the loss of Butler.

This is a great point.  While we're not talking a huge amount of revenue, like with the B1G, for example, we're still talking some revenue, and replacing one with three just means less for everyone.

You guys really need to read the article before you post.  It answers most of your questions.  The HL is only looking at teams that have proven at large potential.  The schools in the article are schools that have contacted the HL.  It doesn't mean we are interested in any of them.  They are just the schools that have contacted us.  From what I am hearing we want to add 3 teams.  Not just any 3 teams.  We want 3 teams with at large potential.  The HL wants to add programs that can help get to the point where we are a consistent 2+ bid conference.   If we are consistently a 2 bid conference we will all make more money even though we have 12 mouths to feed instead of 10.
And FYI, the HL is looking for the best 3 schools to meet the 5 criteria set in the article.  Being a private school is not one of the criteria.

Thank you.

As to the question of Belmont, TCU jumped to the Big 12 before ever playing a game in the Big East. As with the binding nature of a coach's contract, loyalty to a conference is a thing of the distant past.

The difference here though IMO is that there is no AQ BCS status twisting and dangling in front of Belmont.  Moving from the far flung Atlantic Sun, Belmont might like the fact that there are four OVC schools located in Tennessee alone.  I'm sure one reason why TCU jumped to the Big 12 was so that it could become more geographically compact than as a Big East member.  I suppose it is possible, but why would Belmont want to lessen their geographical compactness by moving to the HL?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Nope.  I still don't buy it.

Belmont going to the Horizon would be like VU, after promising to go to the Horizon out of the travel snafu formerly known as the Mid-Con, went to the OVC.

I mean, sure it could happen.  (as Wayne would say "when monkeys fly out...").  I mean, girls are always saying, "I just don't want to date [type x] any more"...and they dump the next guy quickly for another type x.

But the conference they're going to makes more sense to them.  I'm sure they'd be a decent competitive fit, but they start to spread the Horizon beyond its cozy boundaries--which are part of the appeal.

If you're a Phish fan (and I'm not), "signing" Belmont, Murray St., and (just say) St. Louis is the equivalent of making the album "Hoist".

[FWalum]

Belmont is almost certainly out of the picture.  I am sure that there would also be some monetary penalty assessed to Belmont by the OVC if they made the jump to the HL.  This might be something that a major school could justify but a smaller mid-major... I doubt it would happen.

[HorizonLeagueFan]

DePaul is never coming to the HL.  They make more money from their share of Big East tournament money and the Big East TV contract than all of the HL teams make combined. 

Yes, this might be true.  However, there might not even be a Big East after the new BCS Bowls/playoff negotiations are completed.  Right now the discussions are between Pac 12, Big 10, Big 12, SEC and ACC, as if the Big East doesn't matter and will get shafted. 

No Big East basketball team is going to jump ship until the conference folds.  They would give up too much money.  If the Big East ever does fold, Depaul is going to try to get into the best basketball conference they can.  The A-10 and the MVC would be their first 2 options. 

[HorizonLeagueFan]

Belmont is almost certainly out of the picture.  I am sure that there would also be some monetary penalty assessed to Belmont by the OVC if they made the jump to the HL.  This might be something that a major school could justify but a smaller mid-major... I doubt it would happen.

Belmont was in a low major conference (A Sun).  They decided to move to another low major conference (OVC) to decrease travel costs.  There was no other benefit to joining the OVC.  Even with them in the conference, the OVC is still a 18-20 ranked conference. 
I really don't understand how any Valpo fan cannot understand why Belmont would want to make the jump to the HL considering it was just a few years ago when you joined the conference.  Any team from a 20+ rated conference that has no chance at getting an at-large bid from their conference is going to give serious consideration to joining a conference that is usually ranked 11-14 and has shown the ability to get at large bids fairly regularly.  Add in the fact that Murray State may also be leaving the OVC to join the HL.  Why would they want to stay in the OVC without Murray State when they could join a much higher rated conference with them?  The only negative for them would be travel costs.  Did travel costs stop Butler from leaving a 1-2 bid HL to go to a 3-4 bid A-10 conference. 
In regards to Belmont having to pay a penalty for leaving the OVC.  All they would have to pay is the exit fee the OVC has in place. I doubt it is very much considering what a low conference it is.  Regardless, if they are really interested in the HL, I think the HL would be more than happy to pick up that tab to get them into our conference.  We just got a bunch of extra cash that Butler had to leave behind with their departure.  It would be poetic to use the money we got from them on the way out to help secure one of their replacements for the HL.

[IndyValpo]

I really don't understand how any Valpo fan cannot understand why Belmont would want to make the jump to the HL considering it was just a few years ago when you joined the conference.  Any team from a 20+ rated conference that has no chance at getting an at-large bid from their conference is going to give serious consideration to joining a conference that is usually ranked 11-14 and has shown the ability to get at large bids fairly regularly.  Add in the fact that Murray State may also be leaving the OVC to join the HL.

I really don't understand why you can't understand that people have varying opinions. 

[vu72]

I really don't understand how any Valpo fan cannot understand why Belmont would want to make the jump to the HL considering it was just a few years ago when you joined the conference.

I fully understand your point regarding Belmont, but to be clear, Valpo didn't leave the Mid-Con to move up in league status.  That clearly was a plus but added new preasure to recruit etc.  The driving force to move was the rediculous travel and time away from the classroom for the athletes.  The costs were also silly considering the level of play and the return let alone the markets where we played were hardly a hot bed of Valpo alums.

[VULB#62]

vu72 makes a good point.

So........... given all the previous speculation on this string, the added qualifiers (like vu72's),  and the LeCrone guidelines as set forth in his comments, what schools meet the following attributes for addition to the HL?

1. Fit the geographic footprint
2. Have a strong academic tradition
3. Have an RPI in MBB that is consistent with the upper tier of the HL schools
4. Have been to the dance recently on more than one occasion
5. Have been at-large participants in the dance
6. Have won at least one NCAA tourney  game in the last few years
7. Fund athletics and especially MBB at a level consistent with the HL average
8. Play baseball
9. Want to change conferences

This is easily tabulated by setting up a simple matrix (see below):  Possible Candidate Institutions VS. Attributes.

I don't have the knowledge to complete this, but I'm sure someone on this board could do a pretty accurate assessment and complete it.

[crusaderjoe]

Belmont is almost certainly out of the picture.  I am sure that there would also be some monetary penalty assessed to Belmont by the OVC if they made the jump to the HL.  This might be something that a major school could justify but a smaller mid-major... I doubt it would happen.

Belmont was in a low major conference (A Sun).  They decided to move to another low major conference (OVC) to decrease travel costs.  There was no other benefit to joining the OVC.  Even with them in the conference, the OVC is still a 18-20 ranked conference. 
I really don't understand how any Valpo fan cannot understand why Belmont would want to make the jump to the HL considering it was just a few years ago when you joined the conference.  Any team from a 20+ rated conference that has no chance at getting an at-large bid from their conference is going to give serious consideration to joining a conference that is usually ranked 11-14 and has shown the ability to get at large bids fairly regularly.  Add in the fact that Murray State may also be leaving the OVC to join the HL.  Why would they want to stay in the OVC without Murray State when they could join a much higher rated conference with them?  The only negative for them would be travel costs.  Did travel costs stop Butler from leaving a 1-2 bid HL to go to a 3-4 bid A-10 conference. 
In regards to Belmont having to pay a penalty for leaving the OVC.  All they would have to pay is the exit fee the OVC has in place. I doubt it is very much considering what a low conference it is. Regardless, if they are really interested in the HL, I think the HL would be more than happy to pick up that tab to get them into our conference.  We just got a bunch of extra cash that Butler had to leave behind with their departure.  It would be poetic to use the money we got from them on the way out to help secure one of their replacements for the HL.

Regarding exit fees, the OVC's fees may be minimal now (not sure) but who is to say that they will not increase in the future?

The CAA just raised their conference's exit fee to $1M as a reaction to members departing their conference.  In other words, Drexel to the HL became much more difficult if there ever was an avenue in the first place.  I'm sure if the OVC wanted to, they could increase their exit fees just as easily, particularly to preemptively to fend off any attempt by the HL to poach some of their teams.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2012-06-13/caa-raises-exit-fee-to-1-million-to-create-digital-network

[valpotx]

Someone brought up ORU, and that won't happen.  They are joining the Southland this coming season, as it has been their goal to be in a Texas and Oklahoma-based conference.  I believe the Southland had a lower RPI last year than the Summit, so the move was obviously made because of travel and having local rivals.

In regards to TCU, the move was absolutely made because of quality of teams and rivalries.  TCU was a member of the defunct SWC with several of the Big 12 teams, and was shafted when the league folded and many members combined with the Big 8 to form the Big 12.  Baylor was supported by several Baylor alumni in Texas politics at that time to be included in the deal, while making sure to leave TCU out (both are private schools, so it wasn't supposed to be a TX government issue).  Baylor would never have let TCU in the Big 12 if Colorado, Nebraska, A&M and Missouri ended up staying.  They are huge rivals in everything you can imagine, with sports not even being the primary focus of the rivalry...

[crusadermoe]

I like VULB's grid.     What jumps out quickly is  that I don't think you can find:  Geographic footprint and Recent at-large team       You can't get both.
Best bets:   Oakland, Bradley and Northern Illinois,    (none are recent at-large teams, but all may have motives to leave)
Maybe NIU could work something out with the MAC.   Think of their savings in the non-football sports esp. if divisions could be created in a new Horizon League.   I think the MAC added Buffalo after they joined and are tending eastward. 

[VULB#62]

Actually, Moe, that was kinda my point in posting the matrix.  I was watching all the conjecture and speculation, and when I gridded it out, it sort of jumped out at me that there are very few schools, if any, that would/could ADD to the HL. One key factor is #9 'Wanting to change conferences.' Much of the speculation was about schools in the MVC and A-10 and I didn't see #9 happening with those institutions.  It has me a bit worried and reinforced, for me at least, the hole left in MBB with Butler's departure (although they were 3rd overall in the McCafferty largely on the performance of their women's teams - VU being 5th because of the #1 position in men's sports).  Butcha nevah know.

On another related conference realignment note in my neck of the woods (Boston), Boston University (32,000 enrollment; tuition and fees $56,184)  recently announced they are moving from America East (fully scholarshipped D-I mid-major) to the Patriot League (PL average enrollment w/0 BU = 5,000) in all but Ice Hockey.  That is a pretty big move out here (would have thought a jump to the CAA to replace VCU or ODU was more likely to happen). 

Here is the story: http://www.boston.com/sports/colleges/articles/2012/06/16/boston_university_headed_to_patriot_league/

Once all need-based, the PL is changing it's tune. From Wikipedia: While financial aid has always been available, athletic scholarships have only been given in recent years at Patriot League schools. Basketball scholarships were first allowed beginning with freshmen entering the league in the fall of 1998. In 2001, when American, which gave scholarships in all sports (AU does not play football) entered the league, the league began allowing all schools to do so in sports other than football. Lafayette, the last no athletic scholarships holdout, began granting full rides in basketball and other sports with freshmen entering the school in the fall of 2006. On February 13, 2012, the Patriot League announced they would begin offering Football scholarships. Starting with the 2013 academic year, each school will be allowed no more than the equivalent of 15 scholarships to incoming football players, according to the release. The total number of scholarships can't exceed 60 in any season.

This does not have any direct bearing on Valpo and the HL, but it does underscore the volatility and weirdness going on with conference realignment.

[crusadermoe]

Thanks for reply VULB.      I concur that all seems up for grabs.    LeCrone's comments seemed to me to signal that idea.     That's why I think he is singnaling something outside the box.

I know people will say no teams would want to leave the MVC.   But I think I said in another post that Bradley might want more trips to Chicago and Wisconsin.   Recent years were not good, but there is a nice hoops history there.    My thought of No. Illinois is they might be able to pull of a "football-only" agreement with the MAC and pick up easier trips than their MAC travel. 

[VULB#62]

The poll is leaning heavily to Oakland and that's OK (and I wouldn't not invite them), but they don't bring much replacement value for Butler.  But, the Bradley brand does.  From the start I thought of Bradley (though I erroneously labeled them a Catholic university, duh). No football baggage, splendid MBB tradition and they fit many of the desired attributes.  They have baseball and their team sports mesh with most all the HL schools.  Bradley, in my mind and if they would consider a change, could think of the move as an opportunity to be a consistently bigger fish in a slightly smaller pond (MVC RPI 8th vs HL 14th) and, as you say, get greater visibility in the Chicago market.  With Bradley I could see a two bid -- conference champ and 1 at-large -- profile similar to the profile that was evolving when Butler was a member.  And I like the idea that they are private.  Ah, but again, it's just speculation.