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Opponent Games and Scores

Started by talksalot, November 15, 2015, 09:00:36 PM

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historyman

"We must stand aside from the world's conspiracy of fear and hate and grasp once more the great monosyllables of life: faith, hope, and love. Men must live by these if they live at all under the crushing weight of history." Otto Paul "John" Kretzmann

talksalot

Could be an interesting night for our opponents...

Wednesday 2/10

Southern Illinois @ Indiana State (ESPN3 6pm Central) - Nolan says:  Salukis are favored by 1 with a 53% "are you sure" ranking; VegasLine is Sycamores by 4 !  SIU is 9-2 on the road; Sycamores are 9-4 at home   Jan 20th, SIU won 79-66 at home in their first game; but they lost their last game at home to Loyola by 14.... so... Toss Up


Missouri State @ Northern Iowa (ESPN3 at 7pm Central) - Nolan says:  Panthers are favored by 4.5 with a 64% "are you sure" ranking.  Vegas says Panthers by 12.5.  UNI is 9-4 at home, MoSt is 4-6 on the road.  100% of the money is on UNI.  MoSt won the first game of this series at home 59-58.

Jacksonville State @ Belmont - Nolan says:  Bruins win by 11 with a 78% "are you sure" ranking.  Vegas has Belmont favored by 17.5.  Bruins are 9-1 at home JState is 2-9 on the road.  65% of the money is on JState to be within the spread-line.  The line opened at 14 yesterday.  Belmont (17-8, 9-2 OVC) dropped an 88-78 decision to Eastern Kentucky Feb. 6, snapping the Bruins' NCAA-best streak of 35 consecutive conference home victories.  The Bruins are tied atop the OVC standings with five conference games remaining. Belmont is vying for a third OVC regular season championship in four years.  Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. CT from the Curb Event Center. The game will be broadcast on OVC Digital Network. The live play-by-play of Voice of the Bruins Kevin Ingram can be heard on the Bruin Sports Network and 104.5 The Zone.


so... if the prognosticators are correct... we have one sure win, one sure loss and one 2close2call



talksalot

#527
Wednesday 2/10 - ... I'll get by with a little help from our friends... but not sure we have any....  1-2 on the night...

Southern Illinois 85 Indiana State (13-12) 78 

Northern Iowa 83 Missouri State (10-15) 69

Belmont (18-8) 81  Jacksonville State 73



talksalot

#528
RPI ... just after the Belmont game went final, before Baylor's win over KState... then just after it went final...and then after the Utah/Wash final.. Tulsa SMU and Missouri/Vandy went final at the same time...hard to tell when they updated from which games...interesting to see the subtle swing.  At 10:04 we were tied with UConn... and we went up .0001... into a tie with Akron.

                                   9:25pm          9:32pm      10:04pm      10:08pm
San Diego State          0.5897 39                                             0.5900 39
Oregon State              0.5894 40                                             0.5900 40   
Pittsburgh                   0.5889 41       
Virginia Comm             0.5883 42                          0.5884 42
Akron                         0.5874 43                          0.5873 43
Valparaiso                   0.5873 44                          0.5872 44   0.5873 44
Connecticut                 0.5872 45                         
Syracuse                     0.5867 46     0.5866 46
Saint Mary's College      0.5860 47                        0.5861 47
Kansas State                0.5860 48    0.5776  59     0.5776 58  0.5775  58

valpocleveland

Oregon now #1 in RPI.

Think about this for a second. We took the number 1 team in RPI to the wire, at their house!

SanityLost17

I simply don't have the time to do the research.   How did we do on the Oregon road trip (Oregon/Oregon St.) compared to all of the other PAC12 teams this year?   Would be interesting to see how we compare in wins and margin of victory/defeat compared everyone else who had to make the trip as well. 

vu72

Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 11, 2016, 07:11:49 AM
I simply don't have the time to do the research.   How did we do on the Oregon road trip (Oregon/Oregon St.) compared to all of the other PAC12 teams this year?   Would be interesting to see how we compare in wins and margin of victory/defeat compared everyone else who had to make the trip as well. 
[/b]

OK, we lost to Oregon by 6 and beat Oregon State by 6

Cal lost to Oregon by 3 and lost to OSU by 6

Stanford lost to Oregon by 13 and beat OSU by 6

USC lost to Oregon by 7 and lost to OSU by 15

UCLA lost to Oregon by 14 and beat OSU by 9

Colorado lost to Oregon by 20 and lost to OSU by 4

Utah lost to Oregon by 10 and lost to OSU by 2.

Based simply on score, we did better at Oregon than Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado and Utah.  Worse than Cal.

At OSU we did better than Cal, USC, Colorado and Utah.  Tied with Stanford and worse than UCLA.

On balance, covering both games, we did better than Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado and Utah. (All of them!)   ;D
Season Results: CBI/CIT: 2008, 2011, 2014  NIT: 2003,2012, 2016(Championship Game) 2017   NCAA: 1962,1966,1967,1969,1973,1996,1997,1998 (Sweet Sixteen),1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015

vusupporter

Six Pac-12 teams have completed the Oregon/Oregon State road trip so far (not all will play it because of the unbalanced scheduling). Of those teams, both UCLA and Stanford did what we did - lost to Oregon, but beat Oregon State. USC, Utah, Colorado and Cal all lost both ends of the road trip.

VULB#62

Heck with the MVC, let's move to the PAC-12. Wait, we're not FBS. Shoot  :(

Kyle321n

Quote from: VULB#62 on February 11, 2016, 09:18:04 AM
Heck with the MVC, let's move to the PAC-12. Wait, we're not FBS. Shoot  :(

Eh, we could move to FBS. Wouldn't the Pac-12 like the Chicago market for their TV Network? We can be the Rutgers of Pac-12 football. Maybe one year in the distant future we can watch Valpo play in the Costco Military Appreciation Bowl!
Inane Tweeter, Valpo Season Ticket holder, Beer Enjoyer

talksalot

RPI ... just after the Belmont game went final, before Baylor's win over KState... then just after it went final...and then after the Utah/Wash final.. Tulsa SMU and Missouri/Vandy went final at the same time...hard to tell when they updated from which games...interesting to see the subtle swing.  At 10:04 we were tied with UConn... and we went up .0001... into a tie with Akron.

                                   9:25pm          9:32pm      10:04pm      10:08pm      9:40AM
San Diego State          0.5897 39                                             0.5900 39     0.5875  44
Oregon State              0.5894 40                                             0.5900 40     0.5903  38
Tulsa                                                                                                            0.5884  41 ... not in this pool yesterday
Pittsburgh                   0.5889 41                                                                  0.5889  40
Virginia Comm             0.5883 42                          0.5884 42                       0.5883  42
Akron                         0.5874 43                          0.5873 43                        0.5873  46
Valparaiso                   0.5873 44                          0.5872 44   0.5873 44    0.5873  45
Connecticut                 0.5872 45                                                                 0.5876  43
Texas Tech                                                                                                   0.5873  47 ... not in this pool yesterday
Syracuse                     0.5867 46     0.5866 46                                            0.5867  48
Saint Mary's College      0.5860 47                        0.5861 47                       0.5861  49
Kansas State                0.5860 48    0.5776  59     0.5776 58  0.5775  58   0.5773  59

talksalot

Thursday 2/11

Milwaukee @ Oakland - 6PM tip Central Nolan:  Grizz favored by 5.5 with an OU at 168.  Vegas:  Grizz by 6, OU 166.5.  Oak is 7-4 at home and Panthers are 9-5 on the road.  100% of the money is taking Milwaukee and the points.

Green Bay @ Detroit - 6PM tip Central Nolan:  Titans favored by 2, OU 186.  Vegas agrees with nolan on spread and OU.   Titans are 10-3 at home and Phoenix are 7-8 on the road.   100% of the money is on Detroit giving the points.


Wright State @ UIC - 7PM tip Central Nolan:  Raiders by 12.5, OU 136.  Vegas agrees on the spread, OU is 135.  Raiders are 2-8 on the road, UIC is 3-8 at home.  74% of the money is on the Raiders giving the points.


Oregon @ California - 9PM tip Central (ESPN2) Nolan:  Ducks by 1, OU 146.  Vegas agrees on spread, OU 144.5.  Ducks are 5-4 on the road, Bears are 14-1 at home.  Ducks are getting 55% of the action giving the point.


Oregon State @ Stanford - 10PM tip Central (FoxSports1) Nolan:  Cardinal favored by 1.5, OU 137.  Vegas has Stanford giving 2, OU 137.   70% of the gamblers are putting their money on Stanford giving the points.


Valpo (11-0) , Louisiana-Lafayette (10-0) and St. Marys (15-0) are the only teams playing at home tonight who have not lost at home this year.

a3uge

Quote from: vu72 on February 11, 2016, 08:23:58 AM
Quote from: SanityLost17 on February 11, 2016, 07:11:49 AM
I simply don't have the time to do the research.   How did we do on the Oregon road trip (Oregon/Oregon St.) compared to all of the other PAC12 teams this year?   Would be interesting to see how we compare in wins and margin of victory/defeat compared everyone else who had to make the trip as well. 
[/b]

OK, we lost to Oregon by 6 and beat Oregon State by 6

Cal lost to Oregon by 3 and lost to OSU by 6

Stanford lost to Oregon by 13 and beat OSU by 6

USC lost to Oregon by 7 and lost to OSU by 15

UCLA lost to Oregon by 14 and beat OSU by 9

Colorado lost to Oregon by 20 and lost to OSU by 4

Utah lost to Oregon by 10 and lost to OSU by 2.

Based simply on score, we did better at Oregon than Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado and Utah.  Worse than Cal.

At OSU we did better than Cal, USC, Colorado and Utah.  Tied with Stanford and worse than UCLA.

On balance, covering both games, we did better than Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Colorado and Utah. (All of them!)   ;D
I think it's also important to note that we really destroyed Oregon State for 36 min and kind of just ran out the clock at the end. Don't know if that counts for anything, but the final score was closer than what the game seemed.

hailcrusaders

So UIC nips Wright State at the Pavilion.

I was kind of hoping Wright State would win, so someone who feels differently should explain the error in my thinking.

I'm not concerned with Valpo winning the conference. Even before tonight, I thought we were a pretty good bet to finish #1. I'm more concerned about Oakland snagging the #2 seed, because they'll get the double-bye (they'll need it with their style and the way Kampe keeps his players on the floor) AND play in front of a partisan crowd in Detroit (if their fans dare venture south of 8 Mile). Thus, I'd rather see Wright State finish second, even though they beat us in Dayton.

Coming into tonight, I believe WSU and OAK were tied in the standings. Milwaukee beat Oakland at the Orena, but Wright St. lost, so they're still tied when WSU had a golden opportunity to take a 1 game lead, even though they should get beat Saturday  ;)

Plus, I can't see WSU playing like that two games in a row. We're going to get an inspired performance from them this weekend.
#CrusadersForever

frontrowfan

Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 11, 2016, 09:12:42 PM
So UIC nips Wright State at the Pavilion.

I was kind of hoping Wright State would win, so someone who feels differently should explain the error in my thinking.

I'm not concerned with Valpo winning the conference. Even before tonight, I thought we were a pretty good bet to finish #1. I'm more concerned about Oakland snagging the #2 seed, because they'll get the double-bye (they'll need it with their style and the way Kampe keeps his players on the floor) AND play in front of a partisan crowd in Detroit (if their fans dare venture south of 8 Mile). Thus, I'd rather see Wright State finish second, even though they beat us in Dayton.

Coming into tonight, I believe WSU and OAK were tied in the standings. Milwaukee beat Oakland at the Orena, but Wright St. lost, so they're still tied when WSU had a golden opportunity to take a 1 game lead, even though they should get beat Saturday  ;)

Plus, I can't see WSU playing like that two games in a row. We're going to get an inspired performance from them this weekend.
Comptemplating the a triple tie for second.   What happens if all things are equal (split wins against each other), then what?

bbtds

Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 11, 2016, 09:12:42 PMComing into tonight, I believe WSU and OAK were tied in the standings. Milwaukee beat Oakland at the Orena, but Wright St. lost, so they're still tied when WSU had a golden opportunity to take a 1 game lead, even though they should get beat Saturday 

Plus, I can't see WSU playing like that two games in a row. We're going to get an inspired performance from them this weekend.

We need a full game from the Crusaders that is for sure. If we hit another dry spell where we can't hit one shot and every lay up rolls off the rim or bangs off the front of the rim like we did in tonight's second half we are in for a long night against the Raiders.

bbtds

Quote from: frontrowfan on February 11, 2016, 09:27:41 PMComptemplating the a triple tie for second.   What happens if all things are equal (split wins against each other), then what?

Then each team that finished second will be judged for their record against the first place team, in this case Valpo. Wright State has the leg up so far on Oakland because they have the one win against Valpo.

hailcrusaders

Quote from: bbtds on February 11, 2016, 09:34:05 PM
Quote from: frontrowfan on February 11, 2016, 09:27:41 PMComptemplating the a triple tie for second.   What happens if all things are equal (split wins against each other), then what?
Then each team that finished second will be judged for their record against the first place team, in this case Valpo. Wright State has the leg up so far on Oakland because they have the one win against Valpo.

I believe that's correct. As of last year, the tiebreakers were:
1. head to head
2. best record against the highest non-tied HL team
3. RPI

Ironically, the silver lining here is if we win out (fingers crossed) and Oakland and WSU tie, WSU will win the tiebreaker because they beat us, and Oakland will have gone 0-2 against us.
#CrusadersForever

talksalot

Milwaukee (16-9) 93 Oakland (17-9) 85....  100% of the money is taking Milwaukee and the points.... and they covered the OU

Green Bay (15-10) 86 Detroit (12-12) 85 ...   100% of the money is on Detroit giving the points.... they did not cover the OU

UIC (4-19) 64 Wright State (15-11) 60....  74% of the money is on the Raiders giving the points.... they did not cover the OU

The Final Line on WarrenNolan on the VU game... Valpo by 11.5... (Vegas had us as 19.5 point favorites...)

The two Oregon teams have not finished... Oregon is about to lose in a very big way to Cal... down 16 with 6:40 to play; The Beavers have not tipped against Stanford.

So playing NoKy tonight did not devastate the RPI ...

Chattanooga  0.5894 39   
Akron            0.5891 40   
Florida State   0.5881 41 
Tulsa              0.5878 42   
Valparaiso       0.5873 43 .... that mathematical number is exactly where we were at 9am.  But we moved up 2 spots.
Texas Tech     0.5872 44   
Alabama         0.5872 45   
Saint Mary's    0.5867 46
San Diego St   0.5866 47

Valpower

#544
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 11, 2016, 09:12:42 PM
So UIC nips Wright State at the Pavilion.

I was kind of hoping Wright State would win, so someone who feels differently should explain the error in my thinking.

I'm not concerned with Valpo winning the conference. Even before tonight, I thought we were a pretty good bet to finish #1. I'm more concerned about Oakland snagging the #2 seed, because they'll get the double-bye (they'll need it with their style and the way Kampe keeps his players on the floor) AND play in front of a partisan crowd in Detroit (if their fans dare venture south of 8 Mile). Thus, I'd rather see Wright State finish second, even though they beat us in Dayton.

Coming into tonight, I believe WSU and OAK were tied in the standings. Milwaukee beat Oakland at the Orena, but Wright St. lost, so they're still tied when WSU had a golden opportunity to take a 1 game lead, even though they should get beat Saturday  ;)

Plus, I can't see WSU playing like that two games in a row. We're going to get an inspired performance from them this weekend.

Karmically, Oakland—the mastermind of this would-be, conference-championship heist—should be the second seed and then lose to us in a 45-44 game, wherein Felder scores all 44 of Oakland's points and inexplicably gets 22 assists doing so.  This will foil their plan, but provide a counterpoint to the idea that the JLA confers a home-court advantage to them.  Hopefully, this will scare the bejeezus out of the Valpo administration into aggressively seeking a better conference situation. 

Truthfully, though, the tougher a challenge we face in the tourney, the better prepared we'll be if we make the NCAA Tourney.  I worry more about the lack of competition this year in the Horizon than about facing any particular opponent and I'm relieved that the tail-end of the schedule ends on a tougher note.

talksalot

Statistically speaking....

Valpo is 1 game out of the longest winning streak top 10 (there's a 4-way tie at 6 .... with a bunch of games to go)

25-in-a-row at the ARC puts us in the tie with SFAustin at #7; one behind UAB and S Dakota St

Defensive Points per game allowed has us up to #8 in the list... with a rounded-tie with #6 Wichita State and #7 Villanova at 61.0

and in the Winning Percentage (19-4 only), the bottom part of the top-20 has a 7-way tie for #17... with the teams listed alphabetically.

17. Akron 82.6%
17. Iowa 82.6%
17. Kansas 82.6%
17. Miami (FL) 82.6%
17. Oregon 82.6%
17. Stony Brook 82.6%
17. Valparaiso 82.6%



talksalot

Milwaukee (16-9) 93 Oakland (17-9) 85
Green Bay (15-10) 86 Detroit (12-12) 85
UIC (4-19) 64 Wright State (15-11) 60
California 83 Oregon (20-5) 63

The Beavers have not tipped against Stanford.

So playing NoKy tonight did not devastate the RPI ...

                      9:40pm         10:12pm
Chattanooga  0.5894 39        0.5899  38
Akron            0.5891 40        0.5891  39
Oregon St                             0.5891  40
Florida State   0.5881 41       
Tulsa              0.5878 42       0.5877   42
Valparaiso       0.5873 43       0.5866   46 !! Darn Ducks cost us 3 spots!
Texas Tech     0.5872 44       0.5872   43
Alabama         0.5872 45       0.5864   47
Saint Mary's    0.5867 46       0.5871  44
San Diego St   0.5866 47       0.5870  45


talksalot

                     9:40pm         10:12pm            10:32pm
Chattanooga  0.5894 39        0.5899  38        0.5898  39
Akron            0.5891 40        0.5891  39        0.5891  40
Oregon St                             0.5891  40        0.5891  41
Florida State   0.5881 41                               0.5874  44
Tulsa              0.5878 42       0.5877   42        0.5876  42
Valparaiso       0.5873 43       0.5866   46        0.5865  47  and we fall another spot
Texas Tech     0.5872 44       0.5872   43        0.5872   45
Alabama         0.5872 45       0.5864   47       0.5863   48
Saint Mary's    0.5867 46       0.5871  44         0.5871  46
San Diego St   0.5866 47       0.5870  45        0.5874   43

wh

#548
Quote from: Valpower on February 11, 2016, 09:59:29 PM
Quote from: hailcrusaders on February 11, 2016, 09:12:42 PM
So UIC nips Wright State at the Pavilion.

I was kind of hoping Wright State would win, so someone who feels differently should explain the error in my thinking.

I'm not concerned with Valpo winning the conference. Even before tonight, I thought we were a pretty good bet to finish #1. I'm more concerned about Oakland snagging the #2 seed, because they'll get the double-bye (they'll need it with their style and the way Kampe keeps his players on the floor) AND play in front of a partisan crowd in Detroit (if their fans dare venture south of 8 Mile). Thus, I'd rather see Wright State finish second, even though they beat us in Dayton.

Coming into tonight, I believe WSU and OAK were tied in the standings. Milwaukee beat Oakland at the Orena, but Wright St. lost, so they're still tied when WSU had a golden opportunity to take a 1 game lead, even though they should get beat Saturday  ;)

Plus, I can't see WSU playing like that two games in a row. We're going to get an inspired performance from them this weekend.

Karmically, Oakland—the mastermind of this would-be, conference-championship heist—should be the second seed and then lose to us in a 45-44 game, wherein Felder scores all 44 of Oakland's points and inexplicably gets 22 assists doing so.  This will foil their plan, but provide a counterpoint to the idea that the JLA confers a home-court advantage to them.  Hopefully, this will scare the bejeezus out of the Valpo administration into aggressively seeking a better conference situation. 

Truthfully, though, the tougher a challenge we face in the tourney, the better prepared we'll be if we make the NCAA Tourney.  I worry more about the lack of competition this year in the Horizon than about facing any particular opponent and I'm relieved that the tail-end of the schedule ends on a tougher note.

As good as we are, the only assurance we have of going to the NCAA tournament is winning the conference tournament. Like hail crusaders, I'm for the easiest route to get there. Period. There's too much riding on the outcome to worry about which opponents will best prepare us for the Big Dance. 

Besides, if the HL is as good as some on the board seem to think, what difference does it make who we play?  The league's loaded with quality mid's. Bring on CSU and UIC!  ;)




historyman

#549
It's amazing to me that our friends up in Oakland County Michigan are a perfect 6-0 on the road and 3-4 at home. Who loses at home that much and plays perfect on the road? That is perfect until a week from Friday on the 19th at the ARC. Hasn't it been established that it is harder to win on the road in college basketball than any other sport. Of course Oakland could lose their undefeated record on the road at Wright State on the 15th, Monday before playing at Valpo.
"We must stand aside from the world's conspiracy of fear and hate and grasp once more the great monosyllables of life: faith, hope, and love. Men must live by these if they live at all under the crushing weight of history." Otto Paul "John" Kretzmann