why isnt this team clicking

[truth219]

It seems as though our team isn't clicking. I personally think our starting line up is weak. Buggs boggs and bogan all are sub par players. I don't know why they start. If we play like we have been the rest of season....were toast.

[oklahomamick]

I would say that we don't look as good as last year.  Its mostly the same players though.....

[valporun]

I would say that some of the "clicking" is bad lineup choices, too many rotation changes early and often, no real chemistry with new players coming in and out of games after a couple of minutes, and the unexpected Capobianco surgery, the other things we can't control, and finally, first game with Dority. So many little factors that play into the team having the same chemistry, plus it's still early in the season with so many new pieces being added, and having Vashil still in the infant process of learning basketball overall. Don't get me wrong, I like the globalization of our basketball roster, but I wish we didn't go after international height that is more of a infantile project. I mean I don't mind having a player that needs to work a little more to capitalize on his height, but I don't want to just have a 6'8" or 6'9" big on the roster just to have one.

[valpopal]

It seems as though our team isn't clicking. I personally think our starting line up is weak. Buggs boggs and bogan all are sub par players. I don't know why they start. If we play like we have been the rest of season....were toast.

I would say that we don't look as good as last year.  Its mostly the same players though.....

Sorry, I am not going to join in the hand-wringing yet.

So far, the team has done just about as expected (not just by me, but also by the objective experts in Vegas, at ESPN, etc.) winning the games they were supposed to win and losing the ones they were not supposed to win according to the experts.

For example, VU was favored in the Vegas odds to beat Missouri State by 5.5 points, but they actually beat the spread and won by eight, yet some here seem unsatisfied. Also, according to the experts, Valpo is now predicted to win the league championship and make the NCAA tournament. Therefore, "if we play like we have"—winning those we are supposed to win and losing those we are expected to lose—we will be fine and in the tournament come March. Those are the goals set for this team.

In addition, I don't understand how one could say the team doesn't "look as good as last year." Last December the team looked very bad, losing to teams we were expected to beat, such as the December games lost to IPFW, Oakland, IUPUI, and Milwaukee. In addition, we have just added Dority and an increasingly healthy Capobianco.

Look around the Horizon League: which team would you rather be?

[truth219]

Yes we had frustrating losses last december but we had better wins.

[agibson]

Yes we had frustrating losses last december but we had better wins.

Akron?  Duquesne?  Butler?  Maybe. 

But, unless you're arguing that the Akron or Duquesne games (in Valpo) were a challenge equal to Nebraska (on the road) or St. Louis (on the road) we just haven't _played_ any of the RPI ~100 games yet.

And we may not, until conference season (UIC? Cleveland State?).

[oklahomamick]

maybe we just overachieved....

[milanmiracle]

maybe we just overachieved....

Yep!

[justducky]

maybe we just overachieved....

Yep!

The simplest most obvious explanation is often the best one, plus it requires a lot less thought.

[wittynamehere]

my 

While I think LVD is a nice addition, I'm hoping he learns his role, because him leading the team in shots/pts. isn't it as far as I'm concerned.  He's taken 21 shots in 2 games (including 12 3's) - so he clearly thinks his role on this team is as a primary scorer.  I feel that every shot he takes is one that Rowdy isn't and that's because it works that way....period.  It's absolutely a zero-sum game.

Shots per game: 
Rowdy =  10.6
LVD = 10.5 (I get that it's early but I could argue that you'd expect him to shoot less early on, not more)
KVW = 7.3
Bobby C = 5.3

Also, if you factor out Rowdy and Rossi's contributions from behind the arc here's what you're left with:

Bogan = .353 (34 shots)
Kenney = .387 (31)
Boggs = .357 (28)
Coleman = .333 (15)
LVD = .333 (12)
Buggs = .100 (10)
Bobby = .286 (7)

That's BRUTAL!!!   Either get better or stop shooting.  I mean how do you argue this??  That group is shooting 25% combined from 3 and it's a significant percentage of our shots (about 35% of all our FG attempts - again not counting Rowdy or Rossi)

Rowdy can clearly shoot it, this isn't breaking news and it's the reason he needs more good shots (he's 28/67 = 42% from 3) and Rossi is 4/6 and is known as a shooter.

As for Rossi, he must either be hurt or he flat out sucks in practice.  I have no idea how he's not getting mins. at this point.  If he's going to be a key contributor next year then he needs mins this year or else we're going to have to get use to the bottom of the conference standings.  I mean we clearly need help on offense and we clearly need someone besides Rowdy that can shoot it and yet he still sits.  So what else am I to think?  He's either hurt or he's no longer a D1 caliber basketball player (which would be a little surprising given what he was suppose to be coming out of HS).   

Finally , at this point it's appears that Will's season is on a drastic downward slope - 7 mins. last night to LVD's 30.  So maybe we give this new lineup a look for a while, but again if LVD thinks he's going to lead this team in shots and that somehow that will be good for us, I think we'll soon be trying another lineup.

We beat Kent State so far and that's it and they're 5-5!  I don't care what we did last year, my eyes tell me all I need to know and right now I don't see a team that can with the conference and therefore has NO CHANCE at making the tourney.  We've lost to every good team we've played and barely beat some of the garbage teams.

just my humble opinion

[valpopal]

Also, if you factor out Rowdy and Rossi's contributions from behind the arc here's what you're left with:

Bogan = .353 (34 shots)
Kenney = .387 (31)
Boggs = .357 (28)
Coleman = .333 (15)
LVD = .333 (12)
Buggs = .100 (10)
Bobby = .286 (7)

That's BRUTAL!!!   Either get better or stop shooting.  I mean how do you argue this??  That group is shooting 25% combined from 3 and it's a significant percentage of our shots (about 35% of all our FG attempts - again not counting Rowdy or Rossi)

I think you need to do your math again. That group without Rowdy or Rossi is shooting about 34% from the 3-point line, not 25%. (35% is usually considered "a good percentage": the Division 1 team average is 33%, according to StatSheet.) In fact, the entire team is shooting 37%, which is only 0.7% behind Loyola for the conference lead. Last year, Valpo only shot 34% as a team, so they are 3% better this year thus far.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

my 

While I agree that Dority took too many shots last night, clearly he was right in his choices the game before.  So your sample size is too small.  At least give the kid a couple more games before grading him on one bad one.

Secondly, you cannot castigate anyone except Buggs for their 3-pt shooting %.  Capo is below average, but not "BRUTAL"ly so; everyone else is above average in 3-pt shooting for NCAA D-1 this season.  Check it: http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc  (And as pal pointed out your math is a little inexact.)

(If they weren't above average, we wouldn't be 53rd out of 347 teams with 37.8%. http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152/p2).  That's the 85th percentile for the country.

Finally, Bogan has been ill with the flu (http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/crusaders-have-lineup-options-with-added-depth/article_1fa6ea85-3c3f-56bf-b9f8-b1820fe7ae45.html) so again, don't go making massive judgments from too-small a sample size.

Your $0.02 is refunded.  We've got plenty of problems, sure; 99 problems, just that all of that ain't one.

[wittynamehere]

fair enough on the math - I got that group at 46/137 = 33%. 

As for comparing us to Loyola - that makes the greater point - we're not that good. 

I'll take my humble pie with milk please!  Sorry for the blasting. 

However, getting past the 3 pt stuff.  I'm willing to wager my newly refunded 2 cents thats LVD takes huge mins from Will in the coming games.

Also, I stand by my comments on LVD - too many shots/Rowdy needs more if we're going to be a tourney team.  If not, let's just lower the bar.  All these comparisons to last season are getting old....we didn't make the tourney last year either, and if not making the tourney isn't where your bar is set, then fine.  For me, I saw us as a tourney team and it's clear to me already that we have long odds of making it.  Clearly this isn't a two team league as many (myself at times) thought coming into the year.  I mean you can't lose to Neb, STL, NM and Oakland and then present the resume to the selection committee and say "but we beat Northern Illinois and Missiouri State". 

I think we have too many guys that are getting into the rotation, my hope is that Bryce figures it out and get it down to 7 or 8 guys playing every night.  Clearly all that matters at this point is the conference tourney, so even if we're below 500 heading into that, we can still win a few games and make the tourney.  I say that because it gives the coaches time to figure out the best lineup and then go with it for a while before the conf. tourney.

Sorry about the bad math on the 3's - it just seems like we take a ton and other than Rowdy we're below average.

[valpopal]

fair enough on the math - I got that group at 46/137 = 33%.

As for comparing us to Loyola - that makes the greater point - we're not that good. 

Actually, 46/137 is 33.57% or 34% rounded off, as I had mentioned, and that is not "below average" but slightly above average. (Can you tell: I was once a math major!  ) Also, comparing Valpo's 3-point shooting to Loyola doesn't at all mean "we're not that good": Loyola is leading the conference over Valpo by only 0.7%, and Valpo's 37% is a good percent for a team, plus it is 4% above the Div. I average and 3% better than last year's team, so it is even an improvement. Our problem is not shooting. Valpo is shooting very well (FG, 3FG, and FT), and the rebounding is also very good. There is only one main problem with the team at this point that needs to be corrected: turnovers.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Perhaps a better reading of LVD's whopping 2 games so far was that he scored 20 points on 7 shots his first game (almost 3 PPS!!!), so the coaches told him to shoot/go to the rack more (and then 14 pts on 14 shots, or 1 PPS, duh ).  Instead of 3-6 3pt, he was 1-6 the second time around.  However if he'd hit just one more of the 6, we'd be celebrating a win and talking about how he was the second coming of OP Kretzmann. 

So, small sample sizes.  Fact remains, on a slightly larger sample size, he's better at 3s than 2s (when adjusted for PPS) and he's an excellent FT shooter (college career now): 36.6 / 32.4 / 91.7

It's going to be interesting watching Bryce get the recipe tweaked.  Anyone else think that in some ways it's better to be YSU last year--almost no bench, so you KNOW what you're going to get?  Simplifies the approach for both players and coach.  Now we have almost too many players in the ensemble.

I'll look at AST:TO ratios later.

[wittynamehere]

Also, comparing Valpo's 3-point shooting to Loyola doesn't at all mean "

I meant that if we're comparing anything to Loyola it's a problem.  Not focused on one aspect of their team stats but just in general....as Loyola isn't a tourney team, like many people thought we were.  I get we could still be one, but a team that starts 5 seniors back from the regular season champs last yr. should IMHO be better than we are this year.  Stats or not, we just flat out don't look like a tourney team.  I mean are we really excited about a close win over MO St?  I'm thankful we don't have Butler or Creighton on the schedule this year as that could get ugly.

[valpopal]

I meant that if we're comparing anything to Loyola it's a problem.  Not focused on one aspect of their team stats but just in general....as Loyola isn't a tourney team, like many people thought we were.

But as my context stated, I was comparing Valpo's 3-point shooting to Loyola not as a single team, but as the leading 3-point shooting team in the Horizon League, and in response to your assertion we were a weak 3-point shooting team. Therefore, since we are virtually tied with league-leading Loyola and thus ahead of everyone else in the conference, I was indicating our strength among all the HL teams, those we need to beat to get to the NCAA tourney.

[milanmiracle]

fair enough on the math - I got that group at 46/137 = 33%. 

As for comparing us to Loyola - that makes the greater point - we're not that good. 

I'll take my humble pie with milk please!  Sorry for the blasting. 

However, getting past the 3 pt stuff.  I'm willing to wager my newly refunded 2 cents thats LVD takes huge mins from Will in the coming games.

Also, I stand by my comments on LVD - too many shots/Rowdy needs more if we're going to be a tourney team. If not, let's just lower the bar.  All these comparisons to last season are getting old....we didn't make the tourney last year either, and if not making the tourney isn't where your bar is set, then fine.  For me, I saw us as a tourney team and it's clear to me already that we have long odds of making it.  Clearly this isn't a two team league as many (myself at times) thought coming into the year.  I mean you can't lose to Neb, STL, NM and Oakland and then present the resume to the selection committee and say "but we beat Northern Illinois and Missiouri State". 

I think we have too many guys that are getting into the rotation, my hope is that Bryce figures it out and get it down to 7 or 8 guys playing every night.  Clearly all that matters at this point is the conference tourney, so even if we're below 500 heading into that, we can still win a few games and make the tourney.  I say that because it gives the coaches time to figure out the best lineup and then go with it for a while before the conf. tourney.

Sorry about the bad math on the 3's - it just seems like we take a ton and other than Rowdy we're below average.

I don't know if I agree with you on that or not. I think Ryan is going to take a finite number of shots no matter who is on the court. If you tell me you're taking shots away from anybody else, I am okay with that. My guess is LVD can create his own offense. IF that's true, then he'll be the first guy to put on a Valpo uniform this season who can play one on one. It's not ideal in most situations, but that is one area this team desperately needs help! Shot's aren't always going to come within the flow of the offense, and if you watch the St. Louis game, you can see how good teams can take away Ryan and sag on the post play. After that, Valpo has no offense. Besides that, because Kevin operates in space, and not above the rim, he requires more room to finish than some other post players. Having somebody who can create on his own will help that situation. Let's have more of the season play out before we proclaim LVD taking a high percentage of shots a bad thing.

[mvandersee]

I look at the addition of Dority and his shot creating ability as a huge positive.  If we would've had him earlier in the season (for example Nebraska) he could've been a game changer since we were struggling to drive the ball to the bucket, which seems to be one of his biggest strengths.  Looking forward I believe he will give us the opportunity to win some games that we would otherwise struggle in with his help either off the bench or in the starting 5 depending on where Bryce sees him fitting best.

[truth219]

What is frustrating is that a starting line up is usually the group of guys that play the best together or the most talented group of guys. That isn't what bryce is putting out there. Buggs bogan boggs rowdy and kvw....buggs and bogan need to be replaced

[milanmiracle]

I look at the addition of Dority and his shot creating ability as a huge positive.  If we would've had him earlier in the season (for example Nebraska) he could've been a game changer since we were struggling to drive the ball to the bucket, which seems to be one of his biggest strengths.  Looking forward I believe he will give us the opportunity to win some games that we would otherwise struggle in with his help either off the bench or in the starting 5 depending on where Bryce sees him fitting best.

IF this team is going to go where we want it to go, Buggs has to come off the bench.

[truth219]

When was the last time you saw valpo look good for a whole game.

[StlVUFan]

Also, I stand by my comments on LVD - too many shots/Rowdy needs more if we're going to be a tourney team.

Rowdy was being shadowed very well last night.  He can't shoot if they can't get him the ball.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

When was the last time you saw valpo look good for a whole game.

Probably that time we hung 138 points on Muhlenberg.  It was awesome.  9 years prior to my conception.  But awesome. 

That's just what I've heard.

[EddieCabot]

http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/college/valparaiso-university/crusaders-suffer-another-collapse-against-oakland/article_4f261506-b4be-58cc-b412-67854432b2f1.html

It seems like a lot of the questions are answered in this article.  Dority is getting used to close games and Broekhoff has scratches and bruises.  It wasn't mentioned in the article, but Oren mentioned on Twitter that Bogan may have still been ailing from the sniffles.  Bryce also comments they they'll use the 3 remaining non-conference games to get ready for the start of Horizon League play, so I trust everything will be ok.