Final Four Picks

[usc4valpo]

ok, time to make our Final 4 picks:

Loyola over Michigan
Kansas over Villanova

Kansas over Loyola

[VU2014]

Michigan over Loyola (Mo Wagner is going to be a problem)
Kansas over Villanova

Kansas over Michigan

Rooting for Loyola and I think they have a shot but I think Michigan is going to win.

[vu84v2]

Wow!  As the Kansas (and Valpo) alum here, I love those picks. That said, I think Villanova is a really good team that does everything well.

Michigan over Loyola (but pulling for Loyola)
Villanova over Kansas (and clearly want to be wrong here)

Villanova over Michigan

[jack]

Michigan over Loyola
Villanova  over Kansas

Michigan over Villanova

[VULB#62]

I'm going straight catholic and private.  Villanova over Loyola in the final.

[covufan]

Loyola over Michigan
Villanova over Kansas

Villanova over Loyola

[talksalot]

Kansas over Loyola on Monday

[Just Sayin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/978051271885193216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Falexkay%2F2018%2F03%2F29%2Ffinal-four-schedule-2018-updated-odds-and-march-madness-predictions-for-ncaa-tournament-champion%2F&tfw_creator=alexkay&tfw_site=forbes

[Just Sayin]

2018 NCAA Tournament National Championship Odds

Team   Seed - Region       Current Odds.        Opening Odds Villanova Wildcats   1 - East           -115                  +400 Michigan Wolverines   3 - West           +230          +1000 Kansas Jayhawks   1 - Midwest   +300          +1700 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers   11 - South   +1000         +6000

Odds via BetDSI Sportsbook

[Just Sayin]

Before a game was played, I picked Michigan to be the national champion.
After watching the teams play:

Michigan over Loyola
Villanova over Kansas

Villanova over Michigan for national championship.

Both Villanova and Kansas have star guards and if one has a bad game, the other team will probably win.
V: Brunson: 6-3; 19.2 pts/game;   4.6 assists/game
K: Graham:  6-2;  17.2 pts/game; 7.3 assist/game

SOS on Selection Sunday: Villanova    12 Kansas        2 Michigan    53    Loyola      135

What does this say about the value of any team's SOS as an important factor in reaching the final four, and presumably being the best four teams?

[VULB#62]

Nice run Loyola. It was not to be but you made the MVC proud. All of the conference schools have a new standard to live up to.

[usc4valpo]

Loyola should certainly keep their heads up. The string of turnovers in the second half was the difference in my opinion, but Michigan's defense contributed to that.

Villanova was unstoppable last night.

[talksalot]

Kansas over Loyola on Monday

Of course, I meant the "Consolation game"... there is a consolation game, isn't there?

BTW, I think Adam Amin did a helluva job in Columbus this past weekend... but that's just my opinion...

[usc4valpo]

Adam Amin was fortunate to watch some outstanding basketball in Columbus.

[usc4valpo]

I am 0 for 2. I pick Michigan for the upset.

[valpopal]

Time to raise a glass or two to toast Villanova and then wipe the slate clean as we look forward to the tip off of the 2018-2019 season . . . only 218 days away! 

[bigmosmithfan1]

Feel a bit better about Loyola's loss on Saturday. While I would have loved to see them in the title game, ain't no way they were beating that Nova buzzsaw that showed up this weekend. Whoa.

[VUGrad1314]

Still would much rather have seen them play for it. I can't shake the notion that it would have had a Duke-Butler 2010 feel.

[IrishDawg]

Still would much rather have seen them play for it. I can't shake the notion that it would have had a Duke-Butler 2010 feel.

Disagree with that notion.  Michigan this year had one of the best 3 point defenses in the country, both in terms of percentage, and in how many 3's they allow teams to take.  They have a better offense than Loyola.  In a one-game scenario, you certainly could have been proven correct, but Loyola was pretty average in terms of the number of 3's they allowed teams to take during the season, which is a bad formula against Villanova.  Loyola's best offensive output in the tournament came against Kansas State, who was the weakest team they played against at 1.16 points per possession.  Even if you take out the Michigan game, which was the best team they played in the tourney in which they scored 0.84 points per possession, they averaged 1.05 points per possession and gave up 1.00 points per possession.  Villanova's worst game in the tournament was against Texas Tech in which they scored 1.08 points per possession, and even if you completely take out the Radford game, Nova scored an average of 1.20 points per possession and gave up an average of 0.97 points per possession. 

The average offensive and defensive kenpom rankings each of them faced during the tourney (excluding the Radford game for Nova) were as follows:
Loyola opponents-
Offense: 41.8
Defense: 37.2

Villanova opponents-
Offense: 41.2
Defense: 23

So Villanova averaged 1.20 points per possession against defenses that were essentially as good as Loyola's (ranked 17th), and Loyola's offense, even on their best night of the tourney couldn't match that output.  This isn't meant to disparage Loyola, they're a terrific team and deserved to be in the Final 4 as much as anyone.  I just don't see them (or many teams, unless they were playing out of their minds on a given night) sticking with or beating Villanova with the way they played during the tournament.