November 2018 Poll

[VUSWIM08-12]

Nov 6th: Concordia-Chicago
Nov 15th: WKU
Nov 16th: Monmouth or WVU
Nov 18th: TBD
Nov 21st: SIUE
Nov 24th: @WVU
Nov 28th: @UNLV

We start off November with an exhibition game against the UIndy Greyhounds(not part of the poll,but they have typically played us well! We lost to them in 2009 by 5 and beat them by 8 in 2015), and finish with UNLV in the MW/MVC Challenge. Who knows who our opponents will be for games 2 and 3 of the Myrtle Beach Invitational but that's part of the guess work of the poll. We definitely have a tougher November than last year so we'll get to find out a lot about this team within the 1st month!

[M]

3-4...my optimism has to be earned after last year's debacle.

[FieldGoodie05]

3-4...my optimism has to be earned after last year's debacle.

I don't see where we get the 4th win, so I'd have to agreed (3-4) in November.

[tiny707]

Concordia should be a win.

[VUGrad1314]

Anywhere from 3-4 to 5-2 with the lower end of that being more likely.

[VULB#62]

Nov 6th: Concordia-Chicago   {W}
Nov 15th: WKU  {L}
Nov 16th: Monmouth or WVU  {W}
Nov 18th: TBD.  {L}
Nov 21st: SIUE.  {W}
Nov 24th: @WVU. {L)
Nov 28th: @UNLV   {W}

4-3.  Glass completely full.

[FieldGoodie05]

Nov 6th: Concordia-Chicago   {W}
Nov 15th: WKU  {L}
Nov 16th: Monmouth or WVU  {W}
Nov 18th: TBD.  {L}
Nov 21st: SIUE.  {W}
Nov 24th: @WVU. {L)
Nov 28th: @UNLV   {W}

4-3.  Glass completely full.

I'm not certain, but by you crossing out WVU are you saying that Monmouth will defeat WVU to play us?

[valpo64]

Concordia - Illinois?  I think our women's team could give them a battle.  Are you sure this is a regular scheduled game or exhibition?

[VUGrad1314]

Nov 6th: Concordia-Chicago   {W}
Nov 15th: WKU  {L}
Nov 16th: Monmouth or WVU  {W}
Nov 18th: TBD.  {L}
Nov 21st: SIUE.  {W}
Nov 24th: @WVU. {L)
Nov 28th: @UNLV   {W}

4-3.  Glass completely full.

I'm not certain, but by you crossing out WVU are you saying that Monmouth will defeat WVU to play us?

No he's saying VU and Monmouth will both lose their opening round matchup and play each other. If we lose the opening round game we will play the other opening round loser on our side of the bracket.

[IrishDawg]

Based on the preseason kenpom ratings (which may or may not be overly accurate), here are the games right now and percentage chance of victory

Concodia - 100% W
Western Kentucky - 35% L

Nothing's published on these, but here's my best guesstimate as of right now for a neutral site game based on ranking differences:
WVU - Likely around 10% L
Monmouth - Likely around 60-70% - W
Saint Joseph - Likely around 40-45% - L
Wake Forest - Likely around 40% - L
UCF - Likely around 30-35% - L
Cal State Fullerton - Just above 50% - W

SIUE - 92% W
@WVU - 6% L
@UNLV - 40% L

So as the numbers go, their most likely record going into December right now is 3-4, but their third game at Myrtle Beach (assuming they lose to WKU and beat Monmouth) is going to be close enough to a toss up that they could easily go 4-3 during this stretch, and if you're an optimist, a 40% chance in a true road game aren't bad odds either and you could catch them looking ahead to their game a couple days later against Cincinnati.

[wh]

I don't think I've ever had a harder time predicting a record for one of our monthly polls. I finally went with 4-3, but it's basically an educated guess with a little wishful thinking mixed in.

[VU2014]

I went with 4-3, but I could see us going 3-4. If the team is better than expected then maybe we win that UNLV game. This team has a lot to prove.

PG play is a huge question mark and with Jay potentially being out, the rebound disparity with Smits against more physical/athletics bigs could get ugly...

Nov 6th: Concordia-Chicago W
Nov 15th: WKU L
Nov 16th: Monmouth or WVU W
Nov 18th: tbd W
Nov 21st: SIUE W
Nov 24th: @WVU L
Nov 28th: @UNLV L

[justducky]

I was leaning towards 3-4 but chef just talked me into 4-3.  5-2 and 3-4 now seem equally likely. We could play some very good basketball in Nov and still have a losing record! By December we should have a much clearer view of our 18-19 MVC potential and minutes distribution. Hopefully we can get and then stay healthy. With only 11 available scholarship players all will be important for a successful campaign.

[covufan]

Too late to vote, but I'm guessing 3-4, and hoping that we get Monmouth and Cal St Fullerton, and have a chance for 4-3.

[IndyEIT777]

I'm going to go with 4-3. I'm sure we'll beat Concordia and SIUE. My hope is we win 2 games in Myrtle Beach and/or win 1 and beat UNLV. Being really optimistic, I'd love to see us be competitive against WVU, though if we play anywhere close to what we did on Thursday, we'll lose by 40.

[VUBBFan]

Wow! Half of us know this team pretty good.
Now that we got that out of the way, let's win some more games. Feeling kind of optimistic at the moment.
Must destroy UC-Riverside now

[SanityLost17]

Realistically speaking, the only game we would like to have back is Wake Forest.  That is a game we perhaps should have won.  We did not play well against SIUE, but a win is a win.   Not as exciting as last years 7-0 start, but you can see the improvement happening.   I still think when Sorolla gets fully healthy and Bradford becomes our 8th man we are going to be highly competitive most every night with most anyone. 

[M]

I'm wondering if Bradford will be fully healthy at any point this year....

[VU2014]

I'm wondering if Bradford will be fully healthy at any point this year....

If he takes a medical redshirt that may eat up one scholarship from that big 2020 recruiting class. The staff is targeting PGs in that class.

[EddieCabot]

I'm wondering if Bradford will be fully healthy at any point this year....

If he takes a medical redshirt that may eat up one scholarship from that big 2020 recruiting class. The staff is targeting PGs in that class.

That would leave only 6 scholarships available for the 2020 class.  FWIW, Valpo is not required to offer him a scholarship for a 5th season if they don't want to.  Assuming he graduates, he could become a grad transfer like Lexus was.

[VU2014]

I'm wondering if Bradford will be fully healthy at any point this year....

If he takes a medical redshirt that may eat up one scholarship from that big 2020 recruiting class. The staff is targeting PGs in that class.

That would leave only 6 scholarships available for the 2020 class.  FWIW, Valpo is not required to offer him a scholarship for a 5th season if they don't want to.  Assuming he graduates, he could become a grad transfer like Lexus was.

That's true but I don't see this coaching staff not giving Micah the opportunity to play 5 years if it's a medical RS year. He's Coach Lottich's first recruit as a head coach. He recruited him while he was still an assistant. I just think there is too much loyalty there to not give him a scholarship if he wanted to remain at VU that potential 5th year.

[SanityLost17]

Plus a 5th year Bradford will be way better than any true freshman PG Valpo is going to get.

[FieldGoodie05]

Plus a 5th year Bradford will be way better than any true freshman PG Valpo is going to get.

I'd predict Micah transfers either way.  It's demoralizing being injured + watching a freshmen show decent progress in your stead.

I sure hope he's back and healthy by MVC but realistically wondering where his mind is.

[M]

I'm pretty sure scholarships are renewed on a yearly basis.
I'm not sure a true freshmen pg wouldn't be better then a 5th year bradford, but hopefully he's healed up and contributing again shortly.

[VULB#62]

What, no December poll? Five games and we have already won one.

I say 4-1. Only loss to Texas A&M.